Kalshi vs Polymarket: where the two exchanges disagree today
180 events priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $6.5M traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is J.D. Vance at -4.7 pp. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap (K − P) | Net edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET | J.D. Vance | 46¢ | 50¢ | -4.7 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion May 30, 7:59 PM ET | Barcelona | 21¢ | 17¢ | +4.5 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in December? Dec 9, 6:59 PM ET | No change | 49¢ | 45¢ | +4.5 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in January? Jan 27, 6:59 PM ET | 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17¢ | 20¢ | -3.3 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Sep 6, 12:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers | 57¢ | 56¢ | +2.0 pp | -1.23¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Sep 6, 1:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves | 51¢ | 49¢ | +2.0 pp | -2.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| NBA: 2027 Champion Jun 30, 8:00 PM ET | New York Knicks | 9¢ | 12¢ | -3.0 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Sep 7, 3:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers | 56¢ | 54¢ | +3.0 pp | -5.24¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Southern Connecticut State vs. Wagner Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET | Wagner | 68¢ | 71¢ | -3.0 pp | -2.07¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Sep 6, 1:40 PM ET | New York Mets | 55¢ | 55¢ | +1.0 pp | -2.24¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles Sep 7, 1:35 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles | 51¢ | 51¢ | -0.5 pp | -7.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Sep 7, 2:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers | 56¢ | 54¢ | +2.5 pp | -5.24¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Marshall Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET | Marshall | 83¢ | 85¢ | -2.5 pp | -1.71¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Bengals vs. Texans Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Texans | 56¢ | 54¢ | +2.0 pp | -4.23¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Wake Forest vs. Purdue Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET | Wake Forest | 63¢ | 60¢ | +2.5 pp | -7.15¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Steelers vs. Patriots Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Patriots | 69¢ | 67¢ | +2.0 pp | -7.05¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Sep 6, 4:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners | 67¢ | 65¢ | +2.0 pp | -3.14¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Sep 6, 6:20 PM ET | Chicago White Sox | 56¢ | 55¢ | +1.5 pp | -3.24¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants Sep 7, 8:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants | 52¢ | 51¢ | +0.5 pp | -6.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| West Florida vs. Central Arkansas Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET | Central Arkansas | 72¢ | 74¢ | -2.0 pp | -1.99¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UC Davis vs. San Diego Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET | UC Davis | 86¢ | 88¢ | -2.0 pp | -0.57¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Oklahoma vs. Michigan Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET | Oklahoma | 52¢ | 50¢ | +2.0 pp | -3.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Lehigh vs. Georgetown Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET | Lehigh | 92¢ | 91¢ | +1.0 pp | -0.41¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| WNBA: 2026 Champion Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET | New York Liberty | 7¢ | 9¢ | -2.0 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Morehead State vs. Austin Peay Sep 12, 5:00 PM ET | Austin Peay | 93¢ | 91¢ | +1.5 pp | -9.19¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Vikings vs. Bears Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Bears | 64¢ | 62¢ | +1.5 pp | -5.15¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Saints vs. Ravens Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET | Ravens | 75¢ | 74¢ | +1.0 pp | -4.91¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals Sep 6, 2:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals | 51¢ | 53¢ | -1.5 pp | -3.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Sep 6, 4:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres | 51¢ | 51¢ | -0.5 pp | -5.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points. Thin books (spread over 10¢) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Net edge
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports. Not advice; nothing here places orders.