Kalshi vs Polymarket: where the two exchanges disagree today
393 events priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $35.9M traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at −$0.04. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.14 | $0.18 | −$0.04 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in December? Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET | 25 bps increase | $0.72 | $0.75 | −$0.03 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET | Gadi Eizenkot | $0.47 | $0.49 | −$0.03 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET | J.D. Vance | $0.42 | $0.44 | −$0.03 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner Feb 28, 11:59 PM ET | Patrick Mahomes | $0.08 | $0.10 | −$0.02 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| NC State vs. Stanford Oct 23, 10:30 PM ET | NC State | $0.71 | $0.73 | −$0.02 | -2.01% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion Jun 19, 11:59 PM ET | Paris Saint-Germain | $0.20 | $0.18 | +$0.02 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| NHL: 2027 Champion Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET | Tampa Bay Lightning | $0.08 | $0.06 | +$0.02 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Pro Football: 2027 Champion Mar 31, 11:59 PM ET | Buffalo Bills | $0.11 | $0.13 | −$0.01 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| NBA: 2027 Champion Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET | Miami Heat | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.01 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET | Kylian Mbappé | $0.08 | $0.06 | +$0.01 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Steelers vs. Saints Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | Steelers | $0.63 | $0.62 | +$0.01 | -3.18% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Buccaneers vs. Panthers Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | Panthers | $0.60 | $0.59 | +$0.01 | -4.21% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Rams vs. Raiders Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | Rams | $0.64 | $0.65 | −$0.01 | -3.15% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Duke vs. Virginia Oct 23, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia | $0.56 | $0.56 | −$0.01 | -3.23% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Army vs. Tulsa Oct 23, 8:30 PM ET | Tulsa | $0.52 | $0.53 | −$0.01 | -3.25% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Ole Miss vs. Texas Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | Texas | $0.59 | $0.60 | −$0.01 | -3.21% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Rockets vs. Spurs Oct 23, 9:30 PM ET | Spurs | $0.65 | $0.64 | +$0.01 | -3.15% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz Oct 23, 9:30 PM ET | Pelicans | $0.50 | $0.51 | −$0.01 | -3.25% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors Oct 23, 10:00 PM ET | Warriors | $0.61 | $0.62 | −$0.01 | -3.19% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC Oct 24, 7:30 AM ET | Manchester City FC | $0.61 | $0.61 | $0.00 | -5.63% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET | Arsenal FC | $0.68 | $0.69 | −$0.01 | -4.35% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Deportivo Alavés vs. Málaga CF Oct 23, 3:00 PM ET | Deportivo Alavés | $0.60 | $0.59 | +$0.01 | -4.17% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET | FC Barcelona | $0.60 | $0.61 | −$0.01 | -4.61% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Oct 23, 1:00 PM ET | Brandon Nakashima | $0.67 | $0.68 | −$0.01 | -3.11% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET | Petr Yan | $0.57 | $0.59 | −$0.01 | -3.22% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET | Alexander Volkanovski | $0.51 | $0.50 | +$0.01 | -3.25% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage Oct 23, 4:00 PM ET | Anyone's Legend | $0.66 | $0.65 | +$0.01 | -4.14% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage Oct 23, 5:00 PM ET | Dplus KIA | $0.61 | $0.61 | $0.00 | -4.20% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| LoL: Team Secret Whales vs LYON (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET | LYON | $0.57 | $0.59 | −$0.01 | -3.22% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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