Kalshi vs Polymarket
A live comparison of the two largest prediction markets: taker fees on a 50¢ contract, 24-hour volume on the 575 markets both list, closing-line accuracy on 352 settled games, and the biggest disagreements between them right now.
Fees, 50¢ contract
Kalshi 2¢ taker, resting sports orders free.
Polymarket 1.25¢ sports · 1.00¢ politics · 1.75¢ crypto.
Both scale with price × (1 − price), so fees shrink toward the extremes.
Volume, last 24h
On the 575 markets both list: Kalshi $14.0M · Polymarket $9.4M. Kalshi is sports-heavy; Polymarket carries the politics, crypto and world-event volume.
Accuracy at the close
352 settled games: Kalshi closer 113 · Polymarket closer 106 · 133 identical. Brier 0.1591 vs 0.1592. Full scoreboard.
Where the money is, by category
| Category | Matched markets | Kalshi 24h | Polymarket 24h | Kalshi share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl futures | 1 | $3.9M | $524k | 88% |
| Counter-Strike matches | 85 | $757k | $2.3M | 25% |
| college football games | 239 | $1.9M | $92k | 95% |
| NFL games | 31 | $1.7M | $123k | 93% |
| Champions League winner | 1 | $180k | $1.5M | 11% |
| Champions League games | 5 | $785k | $725k | 52% |
| the next French presidential election | 1 | $242 | $1.2M | 0% |
| the 2028 Democratic nomination | 1 | $755k | $250k | 75% |
| NFL MVP futures | 1 | $980k | $23k | 98% |
| the Ballon d'Or | 1 | $191k | $649k | 23% |
| World Series futures | 1 | $639k | $45k | 93% |
| Heisman futures | 1 | $426k | $0 | 100% |
Biggest disagreements right now (liquid markets only)
| Market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap (K − P) |
|---|---|---|---|
| How low will Ethereum get in 2026? Dip to $1,500 | 21¢ | 13¢ | +8.4 pp |
| How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? Dip to $55,000 | 26¢ | 20¢ | +5.5 pp |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 J.D. Vance | 46¢ | 50¢ | -4.7 pp |
| UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion Barcelona | 23¢ | 19¢ | +4.0 pp |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16¢ | 19¢ | -3.3 pp |
| Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner Dak Prescott | 7¢ | 10¢ | -3.2 pp |
Structure
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that settles in dollars. Polymarket settles in USDC on Polygon; check polymarket.com for what is available where you live. Neither is affiliated with this site.
How the matching works
Games are matched by league, team codes and date; multi-outcome markets outcome by outcome by name; price targets strike by strike. Anything that cannot be matched with confidence is dropped. Polymarket prices come from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API, refreshed every 45 seconds.
Questions
Which is cheaper to trade, Kalshi or Polymarket?
Both charge takers a fee proportional to price × (1 − price). At 50¢, Kalshi's fee is 2¢ per contract (rate 0.07), Polymarket's is 1.25¢ on sports (rate 0.05), 1.00¢ on politics (rate 0.04) and 1.75¢ on crypto (rate 0.07). Resting orders on Kalshi sports markets pay no fee.
Which has more liquidity?
On the 575 markets both venues list right now, 24-hour volume is $14.0M on Kalshi and $9.4M on Polymarket. It varies by category; the table on this page is recomputed every 45 seconds.
Which is more accurate?
On 352 settled games, the closing price was closer to the result on Kalshi 113 times (32%), on Polymarket 106 (30%), and identical on 133. Mean Brier 0.1591 vs 0.1592: at the close they are effectively equal.
Can you arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Sometimes, briefly. When the sum of the two venues’ asks on opposite outcomes is below $1 after fees, buying both locks in the difference. The live screener shows the fee-adjusted edge on every matched market; it ignores slippage, withdrawal costs and the time it takes to move money between two accounts.