Kalshi vs Polymarket on NFL games: where the prices disagree today
14 NFL games priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $1.2M traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Seahawks at +$0.01. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs. Seahawks Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | Seahawks | $0.56 | $0.55 | +$0.01 | -3.24% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Patriots vs. Bears Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET | Bears | $0.60 | $0.61 | −$0.01 | -3.20% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Bengals vs. Ravens Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | Ravens | $0.56 | $0.57 | −$0.01 | -3.23% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Buccaneers vs. Panthers Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | Panthers | $0.62 | $0.61 | +$0.01 | -4.18% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 49ers vs. Falcons Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | 49ers | $0.66 | $0.66 | $0.00 | -5.11% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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