Kalshi vs Polymarket on UFC fights: where the prices disagree today
6 UFC fights priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $2k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Arman Tsarukyan at +0.5 pp. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap (K − P) | Net edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET | Arman Tsarukyan | 76¢ | 76¢ | +0.5 pp | -4.89¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims) Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET | Charles Jourdain | 69¢ | 68¢ | +0.5 pp | -7.07¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims) Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET | Robelis Despaigne | 83¢ | 84¢ | -1.5 pp | -1.71¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims) Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET | Gable Steveson | 91¢ | 92¢ | -1.0 pp | -2.45¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Dana White's Contender Series: Quentin Pasley vs. Arlind Berisha (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Sep 8, 7:00 PM ET | Arlind Berisha | 67¢ | 66¢ | +1.0 pp | -4.12¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET | Joanderson Brito | 74¢ | 75¢ | -0.5 pp | -3.96¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points. Thin books (spread over 10¢) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Net edge
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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