Are the exchanges cheaper than the sportsbook?
112 upcoming games priced on DraftKings, Kalshi and Polymarket. With the vig removed, the exchanges sell the same outcome below the book's fair price 88 times out of 224, above it 59 times. Mean book hold 5.3%. Updated every ten minutes.
Biggest exchange discounts to the book right now
| Outcome | DraftKings fair | Kalshi | Polymarket | Discount, pts | Cheaper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State Oregon vs. Oklahoma State · college football games | 8¢ | 7¢ | 6¢ | +2.5 | Polymarket cheaper |
| Sunderland AFC Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC · Premier League games | 14¢ | 12¢ | 12¢ | +2.1 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Levante UD Levante UD vs. FC Barcelona · La Liga games | 7¢ | 6¢ | 5¢ | +1.8 | Polymarket cheaper |
| Old Dominion Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech · college football games | 11¢ | 10¢ | 10¢ | +1.8 | Kalshi cheaper |
| SC Paderborn 07 BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga games | 9¢ | 8¢ | 8¢ | +1.8 | Kalshi cheaper |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC · Ligue 1 games | 30¢ | 29¢ | 30¢ | +1.8 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Hull City AFC Chelsea FC vs. Hull City AFC · Premier League games | 8¢ | 8¢ | 7¢ | +1.4 | Polymarket cheaper |
| Nottingham Forest FC Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC · Premier League games | 31¢ | 30¢ | 30¢ | +1.3 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Giants Cowboys vs. Giants · NFL games | 41¢ | 40¢ | 41¢ | +1.2 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves · MLB games | 48¢ | 48¢ | 49¢ | +1.0 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga games | 21¢ | 21¢ | 21¢ | +1.0 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Falcons Falcons vs. Steelers · NFL games | 30¢ | 30¢ | 30¢ | +0.9 | Kalshi cheaper |
| St. Louis Cardinals Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals · MLB games | 51¢ | 51¢ | 51¢ | +0.8 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Texans Bills vs. Texans · NFL games | 48¢ | 48¢ | 48¢ | +0.8 | Kalshi cheaper |
| Ipswich Town FC Crystal Palace FC vs. Ipswich Town FC · Premier League games | 24¢ | 24¢ | 24¢ | +0.4 | same |
| Bills Bills vs. Texans · NFL games | 52¢ | 52¢ | 53¢ | +0.2 | same |
| Fulham FC Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC · Premier League games | 15¢ | 15¢ | 15¢ | +0.2 | same |
| Texas Ohio State vs. Texas · college football games | 53¢ | 53¢ | 53¢ | +0.1 | same |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC · Premier League games | 48¢ | 48¢ | 48¢ | +0.0 | same |
| Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves · MLB games | 52¢ | 53¢ | 52¢ | +0.0 | same |
| Liverpool FC Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC · Premier League games | 66¢ | 67¢ | 66¢ | 0.0 | same |
| Everton FC Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC · Premier League games | 26¢ | 27¢ | 27¢ | -0.1 | same |
| Ohio State Ohio State vs. Texas · college football games | 47¢ | 48¢ | 48¢ | -0.1 | same |
| Cowboys Cowboys vs. Giants · NFL games | 59¢ | 61¢ | 60¢ | -0.2 | same |
| Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals · MLB games | 49¢ | 50¢ | 50¢ | -0.8 | book cheaper |
| Steelers Falcons vs. Steelers · NFL games | 70¢ | 71¢ | 71¢ | -0.9 | book cheaper |
| Aston Villa FC Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC · Premier League games | 42¢ | 43¢ | 43¢ | -1.0 | book cheaper |
| SC Freiburg SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga games | 55¢ | 57¢ | 56¢ | -1.1 | book cheaper |
| AS Monaco FC RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC · Ligue 1 games | 44¢ | 46¢ | 46¢ | -1.2 | book cheaper |
| Crystal Palace FC Crystal Palace FC vs. Ipswich Town FC · Premier League games | 50¢ | 52¢ | 52¢ | -1.3 | book cheaper |
| Oregon Oregon vs. Oklahoma State · college football games | 92¢ | 94¢ | 95¢ | -1.5 | book cheaper |
| Virginia Tech Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech · college football games | 89¢ | 91¢ | 91¢ | -1.8 | book cheaper |
| Chelsea FC Chelsea FC vs. Hull City AFC · Premier League games | 78¢ | 80¢ | 80¢ | -2.0 | book cheaper |
| Arsenal FC Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC · Premier League games | 63¢ | 66¢ | 66¢ | -2.4 | book cheaper |
| FC Barcelona Levante UD vs. FC Barcelona · La Liga games | 83¢ | 87¢ | 86¢ | -2.9 | book cheaper |
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga games | 76¢ | 80¢ | 80¢ | -3.0 | book cheaper |
By league
| League | Outcomes | Exchange cheaper | Mean discount, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| college football games | 88 | 42% | 0.2 |
| NFL games | 28 | 39% | 0.3 |
| MLB games | 26 | 38% | 0.3 |
| MLS games | 26 | 38% | -0.0 |
| Premier League games | 18 | 22% | -0.0 |
| La Liga games | 14 | 43% | 0.1 |
| Bundesliga games | 12 | 42% | -0.2 |
| Ligue 1 games | 12 | 42% | 0.2 |
What does "fair price" mean here?
A sportsbook moneyline includes the book’s margin (the vig or hold). Converting both sides of a market to implied probabilities gives a total above 100%; dividing each by that total removes the margin. The result is what the book itself thinks the outcome is worth, before it charges you.
Why compare it to Kalshi and Polymarket?
The exchanges are order books: the price is what other traders will sell at, with no built-in margin, only a small fee on winnings. When an exchange price sits below the book’s fair price, the same outcome is being sold cheaper than the sportsbook’s own estimate.
Is a positive number a guaranteed edge?
No. Exchange fees, the bid–ask spread, and the fact that DraftKings may simply be wrong all apply. It is a comparison of prices, not advice.
Where do the sportsbook prices come from?
DraftKings moneylines as published through ESPN’s public scoreboard, refreshed every ten minutes for games in the next three days. If that feed is unavailable, the column is blank.
Data: DraftKings via ESPN, Kalshi and Polymarket mids. Not affiliated with any of them. Pro alerts include the same gaps against the exchanges; sportsbook alerts are next.