Kalshi vs Polymarket on Bundesliga games: where the prices disagree today
11 Bundesliga games priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $91k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is BV Borussia 09 Dortmund at -1.5 pp. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap (K − P) | Net edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Paderborn 07 Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 79¢ | 80¢ | -1.5 pp | -4.41¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen Sep 12, 12:30 PM ET | 1. FC Köln | 46¢ | 47¢ | -0.5 pp | -4.97¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München Sep 13, 11:30 AM ET | FC Bayern München | 81¢ | 82¢ | -1.5 pp | -3.37¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Schalke 04 Sep 11, 2:30 PM ET | 1. FC Union Berlin | 45¢ | 45¢ | 0.0 pp | -2.03¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 45¢ | 47¢ | -1.5 pp | -4.99¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Hamburger SV vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Sep 6, 9:30 AM ET | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 40¢ | 40¢ | 0.0 pp | -5.11¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg Sep 6, 11:30 AM ET | Eintracht Frankfurt | 51¢ | 52¢ | -1.0 pp | -4.87¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET | SC Freiburg | 55¢ | 56¢ | -1.0 pp | -4.77¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40¢ | 41¢ | -0.5 pp | -6.09¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Augsburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56¢ | 56¢ | -0.5 pp | -7.82¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| RB Leipzig vs. Hamburger SV Sep 13, 9:30 AM ET | RB Leipzig | 69¢ | 69¢ | 0.0 pp | -4.82¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points. Thin books (spread over 10¢) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Net edge
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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