Kalshi vs Polymarket on Bundesliga games: where the prices disagree today
18 Bundesliga games priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $5k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is FC Augsburg at +$0.01. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin Oct 24, 9:30 AM ET | FC Augsburg | $0.52 | $0.52 | +$0.01 | -5.16% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 1. FC Köln vs. FC Schalke 04 Oct 24, 9:30 AM ET | 1. FC Köln | $0.46 | $0.47 | −$0.01 | -5.28% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hamburger SV Oct 24, 9:30 AM ET | SC Paderborn 07 | $0.43 | $0.44 | −$0.01 | -6.07% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07 Oct 31, 10:30 AM ET | Borussia Mönchengladbach | $0.52 | $0.53 | −$0.01 | -9.92% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim Oct 31, 10:30 AM ET | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.00 | -8.96% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln Nov 1, 9:30 AM ET | 1. FC Union Berlin | $0.39 | $0.38 | +$0.01 | -11.19% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig Oct 31, 10:30 AM ET | RB Leipzig | $0.51 | $0.52 | −$0.01 | -8.94% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach Oct 23, 2:30 PM ET | VfB Stuttgart | $0.71 | $0.71 | $0.00 | -4.63% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SV Werder Bremen Oct 24, 9:30 AM ET | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | $0.55 | $0.56 | $0.00 | -6.09% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | $0.67 | $0.67 | $0.00 | -4.88% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Oct 25, 10:30 AM ET | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | $0.42 | $0.42 | $0.00 | -5.13% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München Oct 25, 12:30 PM ET | FC Bayern München | $0.71 | $0.71 | −$0.01 | -5.01% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Oct 30, 3:30 PM ET | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | $0.47 | $0.47 | $0.00 | -6.99% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg Oct 31, 10:30 AM ET | SC Freiburg | $0.44 | $0.44 | $0.00 | -9.23% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart Oct 31, 10:30 AM ET | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | $0.53 | $0.54 | −$0.01 | -8.87% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund Oct 31, 1:30 PM ET | FC Bayern München | $0.74 | $0.73 | +$0.01 | -5.49% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV Nov 1, 11:30 AM ET | Eintracht Frankfurt | $0.57 | $0.57 | $0.00 | -7.07% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| RB Leipzig vs. SV 07 Elversberg Oct 24, 9:30 AM ET | RB Leipzig | $0.69 | $0.69 | $0.00 | -4.81% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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