Kalshi vs Polymarket on Champions League games: where the prices disagree today
9 Champions League games priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $3.7M traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Lille OSC at +$0.01. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC vs. Galatasaray SK Oct 21, 12:45 PM ET | Lille OSC | $0.44 | $0.43 | +$0.01 | -4.19% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET | FC Internazionale Milano | $0.82 | $0.82 | $0.00 | -3.85% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Real Betis Balompié vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET | Real Betis Balompié | $0.61 | $0.60 | +$0.01 | -4.03% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Club Brugge KV vs. Racing Club de Lens Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET | Club Brugge KV | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.00 | -4.24% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET | FC Bayern München | $0.47 | $0.46 | +$0.01 | -4.18% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC Oct 21, 12:45 PM ET | Como 1907 | $0.43 | $0.43 | $0.00 | -6.06% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Real Madrid CF vs. RB Leipzig Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET | Real Madrid CF | $0.80 | $0.80 | $0.00 | -4.21% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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