Kalshi vs Polymarket on MLS games: where the prices disagree today
14 MLS games priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $29k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Inter Miami CF at +$0.02. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls vs. Inter Miami CF Oct 24, 5:30 PM ET | Inter Miami CF | $0.53 | $0.51 | +$0.02 | -5.28% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| CF Montréal vs. Nashville SC Oct 24, 1:30 PM ET | Nashville SC | $0.60 | $0.60 | −$0.01 | -5.80% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | Orlando City SC | $0.42 | $0.42 | $0.00 | -6.23% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Colorado Rapids SC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC Oct 24, 9:30 PM ET | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | $0.45 | $0.45 | +$0.01 | -7.24% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Atlanta United FC vs. Chicago Fire FC Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | Chicago Fire FC | $0.40 | $0.40 | −$0.01 | -5.94% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes Oct 24, 9:30 PM ET | FC Dallas | $0.55 | $0.55 | $0.00 | -6.12% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Houston Dynamo vs. Minnesota United FC Oct 24, 9:30 PM ET | Houston Dynamo | $0.46 | $0.45 | +$0.01 | -5.27% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis City SC Oct 24, 9:30 PM ET | Real Salt Lake | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.00 | -6.36% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Portland Timbers vs. Charlotte FC Oct 24, 10:30 PM ET | Portland Timbers | $0.47 | $0.47 | $0.00 | -6.16% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Columbus Crew vs. Toronto FC Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | Columbus Crew | $0.57 | $0.58 | −$0.01 | -4.69% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Philadelphia Union vs. New England Revolution Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | Philadelphia Union | $0.63 | $0.63 | $0.00 | -5.95% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Sporting Kansas City vs. Austin FC Oct 24, 9:30 PM ET | Sporting Kansas City | $0.44 | $0.45 | −$0.01 | -7.04% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| San Diego FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC Oct 24, 10:30 PM ET | San Diego FC | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.00 | -6.15% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET | Los Angeles FC | $0.62 | $0.62 | +$0.01 | -5.01% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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