Kalshi vs Polymarket on NBA games: where the prices disagree today
22 NBA games priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $686k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Celtics at −$0.02. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic vs. Celtics Nov 16, 7:00 PM ET | Celtics | $0.74 | $0.76 | −$0.02 | -1.94% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans Nov 16, 8:00 PM ET | Warriors | $0.59 | $0.59 | +$0.01 | -2.21% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Hornets vs. Clippers Nov 15, 4:30 PM ET | Clippers | $0.53 | $0.52 | +$0.01 | -4.25% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Mavericks vs. Celtics Nov 15, 6:00 PM ET | Celtics | $0.87 | $0.86 | +$0.01 | -2.60% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Knicks vs. Raptors Nov 15, 6:00 PM ET | Knicks | $0.63 | $0.63 | $0.00 | -4.18% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| 76ers vs. Nets Nov 16, 7:30 PM ET | 76ers | $0.67 | $0.66 | +$0.01 | -4.12% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Hawks vs. Bucks Nov 15, 8:00 PM ET | Hawks | $0.73 | $0.73 | +$0.01 | -3.99% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Thunder vs. Kings Nov 15, 9:00 PM ET | Thunder | $0.81 | $0.81 | +$0.01 | -3.77% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Bulls vs. Cavaliers Nov 16, 7:00 PM ET | Cavaliers | $0.72 | $0.73 | −$0.01 | -4.99% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Lakers vs. Suns Nov 15, 4:00 PM ET | Lakers | $0.59 | $0.59 | $0.00 | -4.21% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Pacers vs. 76ers Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | 76ers | $0.73 | $0.73 | $0.00 | -3.99% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Spurs vs. Jazz Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET | Spurs | $0.92 | $0.92 | $0.00 | -2.37% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Rockets vs. Wizards Nov 15, 7:00 PM ET | Rockets | $0.78 | $0.78 | $0.00 | -3.86% | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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