Kalshi vs Polymarket on WTA tennis matches: where the prices disagree today
8 WTA tennis matches priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $114k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is Jessica Pegula at +1.0 pp. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap (K − P) | Net edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea Sep 6, 5:00 PM ET | Jessica Pegula | 74¢ | 73¢ | +1.0 pp | -2.99¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend Sep 6, 11:30 AM ET | Aryna Sabalenka | 82¢ | 83¢ | -1.0 pp | -2.74¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng Sep 7, 11:00 AM ET | Iga Swiatek | 80¢ | 81¢ | -1.0 pp | -2.80¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Coco Gauff Sep 7, 11:00 AM ET | Coco Gauff | 71¢ | 70¢ | +1.0 pp | -4.03¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova Sep 7, 11:00 AM ET | Mirra Andreeva | 84¢ | 84¢ | -0.5 pp | -2.71¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina Sep 7, 11:00 AM ET | Elena Rybakina | 53¢ | 53¢ | -0.5 pp | -4.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro Sep 6, 9:00 PM ET | Anna Kalinskaya | 51¢ | 51¢ | 0.0 pp | -4.25¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova Sep 6, 12:30 PM ET | Marta Kostyuk | 57¢ | 57¢ | 0.0 pp | -4.22¢ | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points. Thin books (spread over 10¢) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Net edge
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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