Which venue's closing price is closer to the result?
On 4989 settled games priced on both exchanges, the closing price was closer to the result on Kalshi 1619 times (32%), on Polymarket 1452 (29%), with 1918 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2037, Polymarket 0.2037.
Kalshi closer
1619
32% of 4989 games · mean Brier 0.2037
Polymarket closer
1452
29% of 4989 games · mean Brier 0.2037
Ties
1918
same closing price to the cent · mean gap at close under $0.01
By league
| League | Games | Kalshi closer | Polymarket closer | Ties | Brier K | Brier P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike matches | 1756 | 737 (42%) | 716 (41%) | 303 | 0.1966 | 0.1953 |
| college football games | 821 | 262 (32%) | 223 (27%) | 336 | 0.1512 | 0.1515 |
| WTA tennis matches | 463 | 146 (32%) | 107 (23%) | 210 | 0.2003 | 0.2006 |
| ATP tennis matches | 405 | 112 (28%) | 86 (21%) | 207 | 0.2032 | 0.2035 |
| League of Legends matches | 371 | 112 (30%) | 142 (38%) | 117 | 0.1753 | 0.1754 |
| MLB games | 353 | 62 (18%) | 50 (14%) | 241 | 0.2317 | 0.2339 |
| NHL games | 177 | 29 (16%) | 32 (18%) | 116 | 0.2223 | 0.2225 |
| MLS games | 103 | 23 (22%) | 13 (13%) | 67 | 0.4041 | 0.4048 |
| NBA games | 94 | 25 (27%) | 18 (19%) | 51 | 0.2301 | 0.2313 |
| NFL games | 93 | 14 (15%) | 11 (12%) | 68 | 0.2323 | 0.2324 |
| UFC fights | 91 | 26 (29%) | 25 (27%) | 40 | 0.2116 | 0.2129 |
| Champions League games | 51 | 14 (27%) | 6 (12%) | 31 | 0.2916 | 0.2936 |
| WNBA games | 49 | 16 (33%) | 7 (14%) | 26 | 0.1712 | 0.1719 |
| La Liga games | 48 | 16 (33%) | 3 (6%) | 29 | 0.3425 | 0.3446 |
| Premier League games | 43 | 6 (14%) | 7 (16%) | 30 | 0.3901 | 0.3894 |
| Bundesliga games | 39 | 7 (18%) | 2 (5%) | 30 | 0.3851 | 0.3864 |
| Ligue 1 games | 32 | 12 (38%) | 4 (13%) | 16 | 0.3214 | 0.3235 |
Most recent settlements
| Game | Winner | Kalshi at close | Polymarket at close | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Acend vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Acend | $0.31 | $0.30 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: Bread Eaters Esports vs 9INE Academy (BO3) - United21 Group C Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Bread Eaters Esports | $0.45 | $0.44 | Kalshi |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Jacob Fearnley | $0.61 | $0.61 | tie |
| Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Yannick Hanfmann ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Yannick Hanfmann | $0.59 | $0.59 | tie |
| Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Rinky Hijikata ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Rinky Hijikata | $0.41 | $0.41 | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Rare Atom (BO3) - VOID Autumn Cup Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Chinggis Warriors | $0.64 | $0.64 | tie |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Polina Iatcenko vs Alexandra Shubladze WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Polina Iatcenko | $0.32 | $0.32 | tie |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Tyra Caterina Grant WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Elena Pridankina | $0.56 | $0.56 | Polymarket |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Jeline Vandromme vs Carol Young Suh Lee WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Carol Young Suh Lee | $0.36 | $0.36 | tie |
| Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Tatiana Prozorova vs Ekaterine Gorgodze WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Tatiana Prozorova | $0.81 | $0.80 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: BOJONG vs Younglings (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | BOJONG | $0.33 | $0.33 | Kalshi |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Mai Hontama WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Mai Hontama | $0.50 | $0.50 | tie |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Maya Joint | $0.55 | $0.54 | Kalshi |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Aoi Ito WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Kimberly Birrell | $0.47 | $0.48 | Polymarket |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Ena Shibahara vs Alycia Parks WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Alycia Parks | $0.54 | $0.54 | tie |
| Japan Women's Open: Katie Boulter vs Katerina Siniakova WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Katerina Siniakova | $0.61 | $0.61 | Kalshi |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Liudmila Samsonova vs Heather Watson WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Heather Watson | $0.14 | $0.14 | tie |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Shiho Tsujioka vs Kamilla Rakhimova WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Kamilla Rakhimova | $0.95 | $0.94 | Kalshi |
| Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Leylah Fernandez | $0.47 | $0.48 | Polymarket |
| Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Ashlyn Krueger WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Ashlyn Krueger | $0.38 | $0.38 | tie |
| Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Saint Sinners (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | ex-RUSTEC | $0.71 | $0.70 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs Revise (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group B Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Revise | $0.52 | $0.55 | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: eSuba vs XI Esport (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group C Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | XI Esport | $0.44 | $0.40 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs maybe (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #9 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Sökerorg | $0.56 | $0.55 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: aimers vs DimoniX Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | DimoniX Esports | $0.45 | $0.46 | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | $0.85 | $0.85 | tie |
| Counter-Strike: DimoniX Esports vs Regnum4Games (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | DimoniX Esports | $0.40 | $0.41 | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #9 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | WBT Academy | $0.64 | $0.65 | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: NOCTIS vs eternal premium (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group D Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | NOCTIS | $0.35 | $0.37 | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ENCE Prospects (BO3) - United21 Group B Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | UNiTY esports | $0.85 | $0.85 | tie |
| Counter-Strike: paiN vs Imperial (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Imperial | $0.67 | $0.66 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Virtus.pro | $0.43 | $0.44 | Polymarket |
| Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Flavio Cobolli | $0.34 | $0.32 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Eternal Fire | $0.56 | $0.56 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs ex-6666 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | $0.79 | $0.79 | tie |
| Counter-Strike: ALKA vs Los Niños (BO3) - CCT South America Series 7 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Los Niños | $0.22 | $0.22 | Kalshi |
| Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Lorenzo Musetti | $0.68 | $0.68 | tie |
| European Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Zizou Bergs ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Jan-Lennard Struff | $0.35 | $0.34 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: Brute vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | Brute | $0.41 | $0.40 | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 7 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-10-24 | BORRACHEIROS | $0.66 | $0.67 | Polymarket |
Method
Prices on both venues are logged every ten minutes. For each game listed on both, the closing line is the last snapshot before the scheduled start. The morning after a game settles, each venue's closing price for the winner is scored with the Brier score, (1 − price)², so a lower number is better, and the venue with the lower error is "closer". Prices are mid-market; a tie means both venues closed at the same cent.
What it does not say
Closing prices on liquid games converge, so a venue "winning" a week by a few games is noise. The interesting number is the mean gap at close against the gaps you see during the day on the live screener: the disagreements are intraday, and they close.
Data
The full table is free as JSON at /api/scoreboard and the per-game rows via the daily reports. Cite as VenueGap closing-line scoreboard, with a link. CC BY 4.0.