Which venue's closing price is closer to the result?
On 352 settled games priced on both exchanges, the closing price was closer to the result on Kalshi 113 times (32%), on Polymarket 106 (30%), with 133 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1591, Polymarket 0.1592.
Kalshi closer
113
32% of 352 games · mean Brier 0.1591
Polymarket closer
106
30% of 352 games · mean Brier 0.1592
Ties
133
same closing price to the cent · mean gap at close 0.6¢
By league
| League | Games | Kalshi closer | Polymarket closer | Ties | Brier K | Brier P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| college football games | 114 | 43 (38%) | 32 (28%) | 39 | 0.0599 | 0.0599 |
| Counter-Strike matches | 96 | 30 (31%) | 45 (47%) | 21 | 0.1877 | 0.1871 |
| MLB games | 68 | 13 (19%) | 10 (15%) | 45 | 0.2344 | 0.2345 |
| League of Legends matches | 30 | 8 (27%) | 12 (40%) | 10 | 0.1304 | 0.1297 |
| ATP tennis matches | 10 | 7 (70%) | 1 (10%) | 2 | 0.2005 | 0.2075 |
| WTA tennis matches | 10 | 3 (30%) | 2 (20%) | 5 | 0.1774 | 0.1762 |
| La Liga games | 6 | 2 (33%) | 0 (0%) | 4 | 0.3553 | 0.3580 |
| Champions League games | 6 | 4 (67%) | 0 (0%) | 2 | 0.2723 | 0.2795 |
| UFC fights | 5 | 1 (20%) | 3 (60%) | 1 | 0.1858 | 0.1837 |
| Ligue 1 games | 3 | 1 (33%) | 1 (33%) | 1 | 0.3784 | 0.3792 |
| Premier League games | 2 | 1 (50%) | 0 (0%) | 1 | 0.3753 | 0.3796 |
| Bundesliga games | 2 | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 2 | 0.4680 | 0.4680 |
Most recent settlements
| Game | Winner | Kalshi at close | Polymarket at close | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Elite Klan (BO3) - United21 Group D Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Gatorian | 67¢ | 69¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: Orgless vs Finishers (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: Oceanic Qualifier Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Orgless | 69¢ | 72¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Devious (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: Oceanic Qualifier Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | FlyQuest | 89¢ | 89¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group A Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | K27 | 57¢ | 57¢ | Kalshi |
| LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | DN SOOPers Challengers | 41¢ | 40¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | G2 | 72¢ | 72¢ | tie |
| Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Wildcard (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group B Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 61¢ | 62¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Group A Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Falcons Force | 44¢ | 45¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | magic | 41¢ | 41¢ | tie |
| Counter-Strike: 9z vs MIBR (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 42¢ | 40¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Alliance (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Legacy | 73¢ | 72¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | 5star | 8¢ | 9¢ | Polymarket |
| LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas | 51¢ | 53¢ | Polymarket |
| LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | NightBirds | 96¢ | 96¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs RoundsGG (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group D Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | KUUSAMO.gg | 60¢ | 56¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Sinners (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Sinners | 43¢ | 44¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs MORROW (BO3) - European Pro League Series 10 Play-In Group D Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | MORROW | 75¢ | 77¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #6 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | BASEMENT BOYS | 56¢ | 53¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: Azuolas vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | G2 Ares | 82¢ | 81¢ | Kalshi |
| LoL: Lenovo Legion Honvéd vs MAGAZA (BO5) - EBL Finals Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | MAGAZA | 57¢ | 60¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 76¢ | 76¢ | tie |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | UNiTY esports | 68¢ | 69¢ | Polymarket |
| LoL: White Dragons vs Dominion Goblins (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | White Dragons | 88¢ | 89¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: Fortress vs ENCE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | ENCE | 92¢ | 93¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #6 Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | MOUZ NXT | 66¢ | 63¢ | Kalshi |
| LoL: VfB eSports vs CGN Esports (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Promotion Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | CGN Esports | 82¢ | 82¢ | tie |
| Dana White's Contender Series: Isaac Moreno vs. Reginaldo Junior (Welterweight, Main Card) UFC fights · settled 2026-09-09 | Isaac Moreno | 55¢ | 54¢ | Kalshi |
| Dana White's Contender Series: Colton Loud vs. Christian Natividad (Flyweight, Main Card) UFC fights · settled 2026-09-09 | Christian Natividad | 74¢ | 75¢ | Polymarket |
| Dana White's Contender Series: Kwon Won Il vs. Apollo Gomes (Bantamweight, Main Card) UFC fights · settled 2026-09-09 | Apollo Gomes | 46¢ | 46¢ | tie |
| Dana White's Contender Series: Christian Echols vs. Martin Kozák (Middleweight, Main Card) UFC fights · settled 2026-09-09 | Martin Kozák | 85¢ | 86¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Bushido Wildcats | 67¢ | 66¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: East Asian Qualifier Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | TYLOO | 91¢ | 92¢ | Polymarket |
| Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | 1WIN | 56¢ | 56¢ | tie |
| Counter-Strike: Phantom Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Misa Esports | 43¢ | 48¢ | Polymarket |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Ben Shelton | 25¢ | 24¢ | Kalshi |
| US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Jessica Pegula | 78¢ | 77¢ | Kalshi |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen ATP tennis matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Frances Tiafoe | 59¢ | 57¢ | Kalshi |
| LoL: 9z Globant vs Golden Lions (BO5) - LRS Playoffs League of Legends matches · settled 2026-09-09 | 9z Globant | 77¢ | 78¢ | Polymarket |
| US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova WTA tennis matches · settled 2026-09-09 | Aryna Sabalenka | 74¢ | 73¢ | Kalshi |
| Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Team Novaq (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Counter-Strike matches · settled 2026-09-09 | WW Team | 73¢ | 75¢ | Polymarket |
Method
Prices on both venues are logged every ten minutes. For each game listed on both, the closing line is the last snapshot before the scheduled start. The morning after a game settles, each venue's closing price for the winner is scored with the Brier score, (1 − price)², so a lower number is better, and the venue with the lower error is "closer". Prices are mid-market; a tie means both venues closed at the same cent.
What it does not say
Closing prices on liquid games converge, so a venue "winning" a week by a few games is noise. The interesting number is the mean gap at close against the gaps you see during the day on the live screener: the disagreements are intraday, and they close.
Data
The full table is free as JSON at /api/scoreboard and the per-game rows via the daily reports. Cite as VenueGap closing-line scoreboard, with a link. CC BY 4.0.