Kalshi vs Polymarket on Super Bowl futures: where the prices disagree today
1 Super Bowl futures priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $3.2M traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is San Francisco 49ers at +$0.01. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Football: 2027 Champion Mar 31, 11:59 PM ET | San Francisco 49ers | $0.17 | $0.15 | +$0.01 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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