Kalshi vs Polymarket on Fed rate decisions: where the prices disagree today
3 Fed rate decisions priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $3.1M traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is No change at +$0.04. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap, + = Kalshi higher | Edge after fees | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET | No change | $0.24 | $0.20 | +$0.04 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in January? Jan 27, 11:59 PM ET | No change | $0.63 | $0.65 | −$0.02 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in October? Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET | No change | $0.87 | $0.86 | +$0.01 | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket. Thin books (spread over $0.10) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Edge after fees
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports, as a percent of the $1 payout. Not advice; nothing here places orders.
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