Kalshi vs Polymarket on Fed rate decisions: where the prices disagree today
3 Fed rate decisions priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket right now, $230k traded in 24 hours. The widest disagreement is No change at +4.5 pp. Updated every 45 seconds.
| Event | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap (K − P) | Net edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? Dec 9, 6:59 PM ET | No change | 49¢ | 45¢ | +4.5 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in January? Jan 27, 6:59 PM ET | 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
| Fed Decision in October? Oct 28, 7:59 PM ET | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp | — | Kalshi · Polymarket |
How this is built
Every event listed on both exchanges is matched outcome by outcome: games by team codes and date, multi-outcome markets by name. Prices are mid-market: Polymarket from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points. Thin books (spread over 10¢) and near-certain favorites are excluded from this table.
Net edge
Buy one side on one venue and the other side on the other, both at the ask. Edge is $1 minus total cost minus taker fees, Kalshi ⌈0.07·P·(1−P)⌉ per contract and Polymarket 0.05·P·(1−P) on sports. Not advice; nothing here places orders.