Fed Decision in December?: Kalshi vs Polymarket prices
Wed, Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM ET · Fed rate decisions · $11k traded in 24h across both venues.
No change: Kalshi 49¢ vs Polymarket 45¢, +4.0 pp
Mid prices. A price is the market's probability: 49¢ means 49%. The gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points.
Two separate exchanges, two accounts. Links may carry a referral code, which never changes what is shown. Disclosures.
All outcomes
| Outcome | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket bid / ask | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 0.0 pp |
| 25 bps decrease | 4¢ / 7¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ | -1.2 pp |
| No change | 48¢ / 49¢ | 44¢ / 45¢ | +4.0 pp |
| 25 bps increase | 40¢ / 43¢ | 44¢ / 45¢ | -3.0 pp |
| 50+ bps increase | 2¢ / 3¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | +0.9 pp |
Price history, last 3 days
How this is matched
Multi-outcome markets are matched outcome by outcome by name, with an alias table for the usual spellings. Polymarket prices come from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Refreshed every 45 seconds.
What this is not
Read-only. Nothing here places or routes orders and nothing is advice. Fees, slippage and the time it takes to move money between venues are not in these numbers.