← the 2028 Democratic nomination
2028 Democratic nomination odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Gavin Newsom leads at 17% on Kalshi and 16% on Polymarket. All 15 outcomes compared side by side, $834k traded in 24 hours, updated every 45 seconds.
Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET · the 2028 Democratic nomination · $834k traded in 24h across both venues
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, −$0.03
Mid prices, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if it happens: $0.14 is a 14% chance. The gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket.
Two separate exchanges, two accounts. Links may carry a referral code, which never changes what is shown. Disclosures.
All outcomes
| Outcome | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket bid / ask | Gap, + = Kalshi higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | $0.16 / $0.17 | $0.16 / $0.16 | $0.00 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.13 / $0.14 | $0.16 / $0.17 | −$0.03 |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.15 / $0.16 | $0.15 / $0.15 | +$0.01 |
| Kamala Harris | $0.08 / $0.08 | $0.07 / $0.07 | +$0.01 |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.05 / $0.05 | $0.06 / $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.05 / $0.05 | $0.05 / $0.05 | $0.00 |
| Andy Beshear | $0.04 / $0.04 | $0.03 / $0.04 | +$0.01 |
| Mark Kelly | $0.04 / $0.04 | $0.02 / $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.03 / $0.03 | $0.01 / $0.01 | +$0.02 |
| James Talarico | $0.02 / $0.03 | $0.03 / $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.02 / $0.03 | $0.02 / $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Raphael Warnock | $0.02 / $0.02 | $0.02 / $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Wes Moore | $0.02 / $0.02 | $0.02 / $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Michelle Obama | $0.02 / $0.02 | $0.00 / $0.00 | +$0.01 |
| Ro Khanna | $0.01 / $0.01 | $0.01 / $0.02 | $0.00 |
Price history, last 3 days
How this is matched
Multi-outcome markets are matched outcome by outcome by name, with an alias table for the usual spellings. Polymarket prices come from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Refreshed every 45 seconds.
What this is not
Read-only. Nothing here places or routes orders and nothing is advice. Fees, slippage and the time it takes to move money between venues are not in these numbers.