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Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Kalshi vs Polymarket prices

Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 8:00 PM ET · the Ballon d'Or · $172k traded in 24h across both venues.

Harry Kane: Kalshi 67¢ vs Polymarket 64¢, +2.2 pp

Mid prices. A price is the market's probability: 67¢ means 67%. The gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket in percentage points.

Two separate exchanges, two accounts. Links may carry a referral code, which never changes what is shown. Disclosures.

All outcomes

OutcomeKalshi bid / askPolymarket bid / askGap
Harry Kane66¢ / 67¢64¢ / 64¢+2.2 pp
Lamine Yamal14¢ / 16¢14¢ / 14¢+1.1 pp
Kylian Mbappé8¢ / 9¢7¢ / 8¢+1.0 pp
Rodri4¢ / 5¢5¢ / 6¢-1.0 pp
Lionel Messi3¢ / 4¢3¢ / 3¢+0.8 pp
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1¢ / 3¢3¢ / 4¢-1.5 pp
Erling Haaland0¢ / 2¢0¢ / 0¢+0.8 pp

Price history, last 3 days

12 snapshots · teal Kalshi · violet Polymarket

How this is matched

Multi-outcome markets are matched outcome by outcome by name, with an alias table for the usual spellings. Polymarket prices come from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Refreshed every 45 seconds.

What this is not

Read-only. Nothing here places or routes orders and nothing is advice. Fees, slippage and the time it takes to move money between venues are not in these numbers.

More

All the Ballon d'Or disagreements · Full price history · Daily reports