Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-18
Matched 463 events (ATP 33, NHL 34, France 2027 1, GOP 2028 1, Israel PM 1, ETH low 2026 1, Heisman 1, CS2 51, UCL 1, BTC high 2026 1, WNBA 3, WTA 16, NBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, Ballon d'Or 1, CFB 110, LoL 3, Fed 3, NBA 36, Premier League 23, NFL 27, WNBA title 1, NFL futures 1, Dem 2028 1, NFL MVP 1, Bundesliga 18, MLS 29, UCL games 17, UFC 9, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 15, ETH high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, World Series 1, MLB 1), $37.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-18T13:01:43.301Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Sonay Kartal (Japan Women's Open: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell, Mon, Oct 19, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.68 vs Polymarket $0.65, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Knicks (76ers vs. Knicks, Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- SSC Napoli (SSC Napoli vs. FK Bodø/Glimt, Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF, Sun, Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Falcons (Bears vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Giants (Saints vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.50, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Packers (Cowboys vs. Packers, Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.51, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Crystal Palace FC (Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC, Sun, Oct 18, 9:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.14, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Manchester United FC (Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC, Sun, Oct 18, 9:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.35, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Draw (Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC, Sun, Oct 18, 11:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- European Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Kamil Majchrzak: +6.75% after fees. Buy Botic van de Zandschulp @ Polymarket $0.51, Kamil Majchrzak @ Kalshi $0.39. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.01, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.53, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.21, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.20, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4476 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1449 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1319 times (29%), 1708 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2014, Polymarket 0.2013 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 807 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 350 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1532 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 359 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 37 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 19%
- LALIGA: 43 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 36 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 6%
- LIGUE1: 28 games, Kalshi closer 39%, Polymarket closer 14%
- ATP: 316 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 397 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 34 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 79 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 102 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 152 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 66 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.76 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.62 | $0.63 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.34 | $0.34 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.87 | $0.87 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.14 | $0.14 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-17)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket