Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-17
Matched 532 events (GOP 2028 1, France 2027 1, Israel PM 1, Heisman 1, ATP 16, UCL 1, NHL 36, BTC high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, CFB 215, NBA title 1, Ligue 1 16, CS2 18, NFL MVP 1, UFC 20, NFL 27, Fed 3, NBA 28, WNBA 4, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, MLS 42, UCL games 17, WTA 12, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Stanley Cup 1, Premier League 20, World Series 1, WNBA title 1, MLB 2, LoL 3), $39.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-17T13:02:01.627Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- FC Barcelona (Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona, Sat, Oct 17, 12:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.67, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- St. Louis City SC (Minnesota United FC vs. St. Louis City SC, Sat, Oct 17, 4:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Mike Malott (UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Buvaysar Gadamauri (European Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Buvaysar Gadamauri, Sat, Oct 17, 12:10 PM ET): Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Red Wings (Sharks vs. Red Wings, Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.51, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Saints (Saints vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Buccaneers (Steelers vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Colts (Titans vs. Colts, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.74, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Chiefs (Chargers vs. Chiefs, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.21, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4265 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1392 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1269 times (30%), 1604 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1992, Polymarket 0.1991 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 702 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 349 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1511 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 358 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 39 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 25 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 16%
- ATP: 300 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 384 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 34 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 80 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 79 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 89 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 141 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 66 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.21 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.75 | $0.77 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.06 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.62 | $0.63 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.36 | $0.35 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.87 | $0.87 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.14 | $0.14 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-16)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket