Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-16
Matched 524 events (Fed 3, ETH low 2026 1, NHL 37, GOP 2028 1, France 2027 1, UCL 1, Heisman 1, Dem 2028 1, CFB 219, WNBA 4, CS2 35, NBA title 1, NFL 27, NFL MVP 1, Israel PM 1, Stanley Cup 1, NBA 28, Ligue 1 15, UCL games 17, WTA 13, UFC 20, Bundesliga 18, LoL 4, NFL futures 1, Ballon d'Or 1, BTC high 2026 1, Premier League 20, La Liga 18, BTC low 2026 1, MLB 2, MLS 26, ATP 1, ETH high 2026 1, World Series 1, WNBA title 1), $25.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-16T13:03:54.264Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Heat (Heat vs. Magic, Fri, Oct 16, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Aston Villa FC (Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK, Wed, Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.79, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Movsar Evloev (UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Cloud9 (LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In, Fri, Oct 16, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.81 vs Polymarket $0.83, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Real Madrid CF (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF, Sun, Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Ravens (Ravens vs. Browns, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Panthers vs. Eagles, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Falcons (Bears vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Giants (Saints vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Buccaneers (Steelers vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- CJ Carr for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4181 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1364 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1249 times (30%), 1568 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.199, Polymarket 0.1989 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 698 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 349 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1480 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 355 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 29 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 24 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 294 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 361 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 34 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 80 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 79 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 89 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 139 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 54 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 26%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.73 | $0.66 | +$0.07 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.31 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.19 | $0.19 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.78 | $0.79 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.86 | $0.87 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.13 | $0.14 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-15)
Views 2 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket