Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-15
Matched 544 events (CS2 58, ETH low 2026 1, NHL 38, GOP 2028 1, BTC high 2026 1, CFB 222, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, UCL 1, Dem 2028 1, Fed 3, NBA title 1, Israel PM 1, NBA 28, WNBA 4, Stanley Cup 1, BTC low 2026 1, NFL 28, UFC 19, WNBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, LoL 2, Ballon d'Or 1, Premier League 20, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 15, UCL games 17, WTA 3, ETH high 2026 1, Bundesliga 18, NFL futures 1, MLB 4, MLS 28, ATP 2, World Series 1), $26.9M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-15T13:13:03.776Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Alexander Volkanovski (UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.50, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- FURIA (Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B, Thu, Oct 15, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- FC Barcelona (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF, Sun, Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Saints (Saints vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Thu, Oct 15, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Colorado State (Colorado State vs. Texas State, Thu, Oct 15, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Houston (Oklahoma State vs. Houston, Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.64, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Indiana (Ohio State vs. Indiana, Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Raptors (Raptors vs. Knicks, Thu, Oct 15, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Devils (Rangers vs. Devils, Thu, Oct 15, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: WBT vs BOJONG (BO1) - Elisa BreakOut Series #2 Group A: +0.33% after fees. Buy BOJONG @ Kalshi $0.14, WBT @ Polymarket $0.84. Fees 1.67%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.08 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.22, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Kamario Taylor for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.02 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Jesse Legree for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.02 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4118 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1346 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1231 times (30%), 1541 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1988, Polymarket 0.1987 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 695 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 347 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1445 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 353 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 29 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 24 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 292 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 355 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 34 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 80 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 78 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 89 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 129 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 52 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 27%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.71 | $0.74 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.28 | $0.26 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.55 | $0.57 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.37 | $0.36 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.21 | $0.19 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.78 | $0.80 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket