Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-14
Matched 570 events (GOP 2028 1, CS2 57, ETH low 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, France 2027 1, NHL 37, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, NBA 24, CFB 224, NFL MVP 1, UCL 1, NBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, UCL games 26, UFC 18, Fed 3, WTA 6, WNBA title 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Stanley Cup 1, WNBA 4, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 15, MLS 43, ATP 4, ETH high 2026 1, LoL 3, NFL 28, MLB 5, Bundesliga 18, Israel PM 1, Premier League 20, NFL futures 1, World Series 1), $29.4M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-14T13:00:26.365Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Real Madrid CF (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF, Sun, Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.18, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Draw (Inter Miami CF vs. New York City FC, Wed, Oct 14, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.21, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- VfB Stuttgart (ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. VfB Stuttgart, Wed, Oct 14, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.74 vs Polymarket $0.72, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- FC Barcelona (Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona, Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.48, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Golden State Valkyries (Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries, Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Browns (Ravens vs. Browns, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Jets (Jets vs. Patriots, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.25, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Colts (Titans vs. Colts, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.76 vs Polymarket $0.75, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Raiders (Bills vs. Raiders, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.32, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.26, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Brock Purdy for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.30 vs Polymarket $0.26, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Drake Maye for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4036 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1323 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1209 times (30%), 1504 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1981, Polymarket 0.198 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 693 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 346 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1411 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 351 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 40%
- EPL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 29 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 24 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 289 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 347 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 25 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 8%
- UFC: 80 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 78 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 74 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 15%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 128 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 20%
- NBA: 45 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 27%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.19 | $0.20 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.82 | $0.79 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.56 | $0.55 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.41 | $0.42 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.53 | $0.52 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.49 | $0.49 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket