Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-13
Matched 598 events (ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, CS2 59, Dem 2028 1, France 2027 1, Heisman 1, NBA 26, UCL games 34, CFB 224, NHL 41, NBA title 1, UFC 19, BTC high 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, Fed 3, BTC low 2026 1, NFL 28, LoL 6, WNBA 4, Premier League 20, Ligue 1 15, MLS 43, WTA 13, WNBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, Ballon d'Or 1, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, ETH high 2026 1, World Series 1, NFL futures 1, MLB 5, ATP 5, Israel PM 1), $21.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-13T13:06:50.338Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Raiders (Bills vs. Raiders, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Real Madrid CF (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF, Sun, Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Nikola Bartunkova (Wuhan Tennis Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova, Wed, Oct 14, 12:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Wisconsin (Wisconsin vs. UCLA, Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Falcons (Bears vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Giants (Saints vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Jets vs. Patriots, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.76, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Rams (Cardinals vs. Rams, Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.86 vs Polymarket $0.87, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Cleveland Guardians (Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Jacksonville State (Florida International vs. Jacksonville State, Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- CJ Carr for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.29, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3966 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1310 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1192 times (30%), 1464 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1974, Polymarket 0.1973 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 691 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 345 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1391 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 349 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 40%
- EPL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 29 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 24 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 286 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 333 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 77 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 78 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 74 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 15%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 116 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NBA: 40 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.02 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.62 | $0.65 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.32 | $0.33 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.25 | $0.23 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.76 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.82 | $0.82 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.18 | $0.18 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-12)
Views 1 · expands 5 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 1 · outbound Polymarket 2 · click-through 300%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket