Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-12
Matched 448 events (CS2 29, GOP 2028 1, NHL 39, Dem 2028 1, France 2027 1, BTC high 2026 1, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, NBA 30, UCL games 34, NBA title 1, WNBA title 1, Fed 3, MLS 42, NFL MVP 1, CFB 116, NFL 15, BTC low 2026 1, MLB 7, Premier League 21, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, WTA 15, UFC 12, LoL 11, NFL futures 1, Stanley Cup 1, ETH high 2026 1, UCL 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Ligue 1 15, Israel PM 1, World Series 1, WNBA 4, ATP 2), $23.4M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-12T13:10:54.895Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Ravens (Ravens vs. Browns, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.70 vs Polymarket $0.67, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.62, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Saints (Saints vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Maryville University (LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs, Mon, Oct 12, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Eagles (Panthers vs. Eagles, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.53, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Broncos (Seahawks vs. Broncos, Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Cardinals vs. Rams, Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.15, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Mon, Oct 12, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.55, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Notre Dame (Notre Dame vs. BYU, Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.78, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Newcastle United FC (Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC, Mon, Oct 12, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.29, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- CJ Carr for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.12, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3912 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1291 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1174 times (30%), 1447 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1968, Polymarket 0.1966 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 691 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 343 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1370 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 343 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 40%
- EPL: 31 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 23%
- LALIGA: 37 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 29 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 24 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 283 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 320 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 77 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 77 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 74 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 15%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 114 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 20%
- NBA: 36 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 28%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.02 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.66 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.30 | $0.32 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.24 | $0.23 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.76 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.85 | $0.84 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.17 | $0.17 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket