Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-11
Matched 445 events (NHL 41, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, NBA 33, CS2 29, ETH low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, Premier League 19, NBA title 1, BTC high 2026 1, ATP 9, France 2027 1, La Liga 18, Fed 3, NFL MVP 1, BTC low 2026 1, MLB 8, WTA 21, CFB 115, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1, Israel PM 1, MLS 30, Stanley Cup 1, ETH high 2026 1, UCL 1, WNBA 4, NFL 28, Bundesliga 18, WNBA title 1, NFL futures 1, Ligue 1 12, UCL games 34, LoL 6), $30.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-11T13:14:16.179Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Indiana (Ohio State vs. Indiana, Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Notre Dame (Notre Dame vs. BYU, Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Hawks (Thunder vs. Hawks, Mon, Oct 12, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Browns (Ravens vs. Browns, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.34, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Bengals (Bengals vs. Dolphins, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.76, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Titans, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.76, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chargers (Broncos vs. Chargers, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.37, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Sun, Oct 11, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Mon, Oct 12, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.52, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Hurricanes (Hurricanes vs. Flyers, Sun, Oct 11, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3838 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1272 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1154 times (30%), 1412 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1965, Polymarket 0.1964 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 691 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 342 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1346 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 340 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 40%
- EPL: 28 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 21%
- LALIGA: 34 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 27 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 7%
- LIGUE1: 22 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 276 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 311 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 77 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 73 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 111 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NBA: 32 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 25%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.26 | $0.23 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.73 | $0.75 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.02 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.65 | $0.66 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.30 | $0.32 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.85 | $0.84 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.16 | $0.16 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket