Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-10
Matched 555 events (CS2 31, NHL 41, GOP 2028 1, ETH low 2026 1, NBA 41, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, ATP 11, NBA title 1, France 2027 1, BTC high 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, LoL 10, CFB 204, Premier League 21, La Liga 18, MLS 44, Stanley Cup 1, NFL MVP 1, Fed 3, UCL 1, BTC low 2026 1, NFL 28, Bundesliga 18, Ligue 1 15, WTA 5, WNBA title 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Israel PM 1, MLB 5, UCL games 34, UFC 9, NFL futures 1, World Series 1), $29.7M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-10T13:01:46.815Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Fulham FC (Ipswich Town FC vs. Fulham FC, Sat, Oct 10, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Titans, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.76, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Colts vs. Steelers, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Commanders (Giants vs. Commanders, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chicago White Sox (Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, Sat, Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- West Virginia (Arizona vs. West Virginia, Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Kansas State (Houston vs. Kansas State, Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Miami (OH) (Miami (OH) vs. UMass, Sat, Oct 10, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.64, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bowling Green (Sacramento State vs. Bowling Green, Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.74, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Oregon (UCLA vs. Oregon, Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.80, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.23, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3626 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1220 times (34%) and on Polymarket 1078 times (30%), 1328 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1937, Polymarket 0.1937 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 601 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 341 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1311 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 334 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 31 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 21 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 266 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 301 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 69 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- NFL: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 100 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NBA: 25 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 24%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.25 | $0.23 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.73 | $0.75 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.85 | $0.84 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.16 | $0.16 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.03 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.66 | $0.66 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.32 | $0.32 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket