Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-09
Matched 367 events (CS2 49, NHL 43, GOP 2028 1, ETH low 2026 1, France 2027 1, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, NBA 31, NBA title 1, ATP 18, ETH high 2026 1, UCL 1, BTC high 2026 1, MLB 5, BTC low 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL MVP 1, NFL 28, Fed 3, Ballon d'Or 1, Premier League 20, MLS 44, UFC 9, LoL 12, Israel PM 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA title 1, World Series 1, WNBA 2, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, Ligue 1 15, UCL games 34, WTA 1), $20.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-09T13:03:59.213Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Thunder (Thunder vs. Hawks, Mon, Oct 12, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Manchester City FC (Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC, Sun, Oct 11, 11:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Dolphins (Bengals vs. Dolphins, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.26, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Titans, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.78, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Colts vs. Steelers, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Saints (Vikings vs. Saints, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Commanders (Giants vs. Commanders, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Packers (Bears vs. Packers, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.48, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Lions vs. Cardinals, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.30 vs Polymarket $0.31, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Sun, Oct 11, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.50, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs antidaun (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group D: +0.75% after fees. Buy antidaun @ Kalshi $0.44, Saint Sinners @ Polymarket $0.52. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.41, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.24, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3528 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1201 times (34%) and on Polymarket 1042 times (30%), 1285 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1926, Polymarket 0.1927 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 594 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 341 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1263 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 330 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 253 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 285 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 69 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- NFL: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 44 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 96 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NBA: 23 games, Kalshi closer 39%, Polymarket closer 22%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.25 | $0.23 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.75 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.17 | $0.16 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.65 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.33 | $0.32 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-08)
Views 6 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket