Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-08
Matched 386 events (NBA 35, NHL 40, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, France 2027 1, CS2 75, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, Fed 3, NBA title 1, BTC high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, ATP 21, NFL MVP 1, ETH high 2026 1, UCL 1, NFL 29, Premier League 20, UFC 9, LoL 9, Stanley Cup 1, UCL games 27, WNBA title 1, World Series 1, Ballon d'Or 1, WNBA 2, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 15, Israel PM 1, Bundesliga 18, MLS 44, NFL futures 1, WTA 3, MLB 1), $25.9M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-08T13:05:33.458Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Senators (Flyers vs. Senators, Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Blues (Sharks vs. Blues, Thu, Oct 8, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Alex Molcan (Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan, Fri, Oct 9, 3:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.30, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Hawks (Thunder vs. Hawks, Mon, Oct 12, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- New York Liberty (Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty, Fri, Oct 9, 12:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Cowboys (Buccaneers vs. Cowboys, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.81, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Titans, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.77, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Packers, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Rams (Bills vs. Rams, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Browns (Ravens vs. Browns, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Pacers vs. Thunder: +2.79% after fees. Buy Pacers @ Polymarket $0.41, Thunder @ Kalshi $0.53. Fees 3.21%.
- Blues vs. Senators: +0.81% after fees. Buy Senators @ Kalshi $0.57, Blues @ Polymarket $0.39. Fees 3.19%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.43, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Gavin Newsom for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Keelon Russell for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3440 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1170 times (34%) and on Polymarket 1023 times (30%), 1247 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1917, Polymarket 0.1918 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 590 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 340 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1213 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 328 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 238 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 283 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 69 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- NFL: 64 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 44 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 89 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NBA: 17 games, Kalshi closer 53%, Polymarket closer 24%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.23 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.73 | $0.76 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.64 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.35 | $0.32 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.82 | $0.84 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.16 | $0.17 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket