Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-07
Matched 598 events (NHL 42, CS2 76, BTC high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Dem 2028 1, NBA 33, Fed 3, NBA title 1, ETH low 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, France 2027 1, CFB 216, WNBA 4, ATP 20, Israel PM 1, Stanley Cup 1, Premier League 20, UCL games 18, UFC 9, LoL 7, UCL 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 29, Ligue 1 15, MLS 44, La Liga 18, NFL futures 1, MLB 4, Bundesliga 18, WTA 5, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1), $28.4M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-07T13:02:22.097Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Hubert Hurkacz (Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth, Thu, Oct 8, 1:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.68 vs Polymarket $0.65, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- NAVI Junior (Counter-Strike: SAW vs NAVI Junior (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B, Wed, Oct 7, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.29, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Oilers (Oilers vs. Ducks, Wed, Oct 7, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.54 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- FC Barcelona (Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona, Tue, Oct 13, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.77, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- K27 (Counter-Strike: K27 vs Metizport (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Wed, Oct 7, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.69, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Seahawks, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.40, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Cowboys (Buccaneers vs. Cowboys, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.81, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Bengals vs. Dolphins, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.76, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Browns (Browns vs. Jets, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Titans (Texans vs. Titans, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Penguins vs. Blackhawks: +1.91% after fees. Buy Blackhawks @ Polymarket $0.32, Penguins @ Kalshi $0.63. Fees 3.09%.
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B: +0.86% after fees. Buy Rebels Gaming @ Kalshi $0.31, SAW @ Polymarket $0.65. Fees 3.14%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $120,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3329 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1132 times (34%) and on Polymarket 972 times (29%), 1225 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1915, Polymarket 0.1916 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 588 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 336 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1145 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 321 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 221 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- WTA: 280 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 69 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- NFL: 64 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 42 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 86 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NBA: 12 games, Kalshi closer 58%, Polymarket closer 17%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.24 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.71 | $0.75 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.63 | $0.64 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.35 | $0.32 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.83 | $0.83 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.17 | $0.17 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-06)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket