Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-06
Matched 597 events (NBA 32, GOP 2028 1, UFC 14, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, ETH low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, BTC high 2026 1, Fed 3, NBA title 1, NHL 36, ATP 20, MLS 44, WNBA 4, LoL 12, UCL 1, CS2 74, Ballon d'Or 1, ETH high 2026 1, Ligue 1 15, Israel PM 1, NFL MVP 1, Stanley Cup 1, BTC low 2026 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 29, CFB 215, Premier League 20, La Liga 18, World Series 1, MLB 5, Bundesliga 18, UCL games 17, WTA 4), $22.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-06T13:00:11.694Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- James Duckworth (Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth, Tue, Oct 6, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.29 vs Polymarket $0.33, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Gothic (Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B, Tue, Oct 6, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Warriors (Lakers vs. Warriors, Tue, Oct 6, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Alivia Bierley (Dana White's Contender Series: Alivia Bierley vs. Summer Onley (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card), Tue, Oct 6, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.35, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Bushido Wildcats (LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs, Tue, Oct 6, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Indiana (Indiana vs. Nebraska, Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.73, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Botic van de Zandschulp (Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Daniel Merida Aguilar, Tue, Oct 6, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Browns (Browns vs. Jets, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Raiders vs. Patriots, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.65, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Packers (Bears vs. Packers, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: +1.79% after fees. Buy Bulls @ Polymarket $0.41, Nuggets @ Kalshi $0.54. Fees 3.21%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.43, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3261 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1107 times (34%) and on Polymarket 958 times (29%), 1196 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1913, Polymarket 0.1913 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 587 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 334 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1120 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 312 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 208 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 277 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 64 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 64 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 42 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 80 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NBA: 8 games, Kalshi closer 50%, Polymarket closer 13%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.23 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.73 | $0.75 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.62 | $0.59 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.37 | $0.37 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.82 | $0.82 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.18 | $0.18 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-05)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket