Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-05
Matched 445 events (ATP 30, GOP 2028 1, BTC high 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, CS2 52, NBA title 1, ETH high 2026 1, France 2027 1, WTA 7, ETH low 2026 1, MLS 43, NFL futures 1, UCL 1, Ligue 1 15, NBA 33, NHL 38, Fed 3, NFL MVP 1, Stanley Cup 1, CFB 104, WNBA 4, Premier League 19, Bundesliga 18, WNBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, Ballon d'Or 1, MLB 7, La Liga 17, Israel PM 1, UCL games 17, World Series 1, NFL 16, LoL 5), $30.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-05T13:03:17.464Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- TYLOO (Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage, Mon, Oct 5, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bernard Tomic (Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Bernard Tomic vs Timofey Skatov, Tue, Oct 6, 12:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Dolphins (Bengals vs. Dolphins, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.22, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Browns (Browns vs. Jets, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Raiders (Raiders vs. Patriots, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Vikings (Vikings vs. Saints, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.53, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Packers (Bears vs. Packers, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Falcons (Ravens vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cleveland Guardians (Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, Mon, Oct 5, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves, Tue, Oct 6, 6:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.50, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $4,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $4,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Miami Heat for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3201 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1088 times (34%) and on Polymarket 941 times (29%), 1172 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1909, Polymarket 0.1909 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 587 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 332 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1101 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 309 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 186 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 273 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 64 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 63 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 42 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 76 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 22%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.63 | $0.65 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.34 | $0.32 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.26 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.70 | $0.72 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.83 | $0.83 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.18 | $0.17 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-04)
Views 0 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket