Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-04
Matched 292 events (ATP 27, CS2 17, GOP 2028 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL 30, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, MLS 30, BTC high 2026 1, UCL 1, NBA title 1, France 2027 1, Dem 2028 1, NHL 38, NBA 23, Fed 3, ETH high 2026 1, WTA 10, NFL MVP 1, Israel PM 1, La Liga 14, Premier League 15, BTC low 2026 1, Ballon d'Or 1, MLB 8, WNBA title 1, Ligue 1 11, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, WNBA 6, Bundesliga 16, UCL games 17, LoL 10), $29.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-04T13:04:09.219Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Giants (Cardinals vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Packers (Packers vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Jaguars (Jaguars vs. Bengals, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Rams vs. Eagles, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Patriots vs. Bills, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.27, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Saints (Falcons vs. Saints, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Jets (Jets vs. Red Wings, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Atlanta Dream (New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Golden State Valkyries (Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries, Sun, Oct 4, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.48, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- AS Roma (AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF, Wed, Oct 14, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.27, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- San Jose Sharks for the Stanley Cup: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.22, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 3122 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1063 times (34%) and on Polymarket 925 times (30%), 1134 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1906, Polymarket 0.1906 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 587 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 330 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1079 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 302 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 168 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 264 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 64 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 49 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 40 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 73 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 22%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.28 | $0.25 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.71 | $0.74 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.62 | $0.65 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.35 | $0.32 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.83 | $0.83 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.18 | $0.17 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-03)
Views 1 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket