Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-03
Matched 481 events (ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, NHL 37, UCL 1, NBA title 1, ETH high 2026 1, WTA 14, CS2 18, France 2027 1, Dem 2028 1, Stanley Cup 1, CFB 212, NBA 24, Fed 3, BTC low 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, MLB 12, NFL MVP 1, LoL 8, ATP 6, Ballon d'Or 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 30, MLS 30, UCL games 17, Ligue 1 8, La Liga 10, Israel PM 1, NFL futures 1, Premier League 10, Bundesliga 10, UFC 12, World Series 1, WNBA 3), $25.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-03T13:02:34.420Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Natus Vincere (Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage, Sat, Oct 3, 12:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Presbyterian (St. Thomas vs. Presbyterian, Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Giants (Cardinals vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Cowboys vs. Texans, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Jaguars vs. Bengals, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bills (Patriots vs. Bills, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.74 vs Polymarket $0.75, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bears (Jets vs. Bears, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Titans vs. Ravens, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.86, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Cleveland Guardians (Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, Sat, Oct 3, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.22, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $5,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Keelon Russell for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2934 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1001 times (34%) and on Polymarket 873 times (30%), 1060 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1912, Polymarket 0.1913 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 479 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 326 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1053 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 296 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 40%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 158 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 254 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 49 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 14%
- MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 40 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 63 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 22%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.26 | $0.24 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.71 | $0.74 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.34 | $0.32 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.82 | $0.83 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.19 | $0.18 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-02)
Views 2 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket