Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-02

Matched 539 events (CS2 79, NHL 37, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, NBA title 1, ETH high 2026 1, Fed 3, BTC high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, WNBA title 1, France 2027 1, Ballon d'Or 1, CFB 216, LoL 13, Israel PM 1, NFL MVP 1, Premier League 10, UCL games 17, UFC 12, UCL 1, Stanley Cup 1, MLS 30, MLB 9, NFL 30, NBA 13, Ligue 1 7, NFL futures 1, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, ATP 11, WTA 16, World Series 1, WNBA 1), $25.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-02T12:59:29.768Z.

Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)

SportsBetExpert (Counter-Strike: NIP vs SportsBetExpert (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B, Fri, Oct 2, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.21, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Bruce Whitehead (UFC 332: Jacobe Smith vs. Bruce Whitehead (Welterweight, Early Prelims), Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Marvin Vettori (UFC 332: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev (Middleweight, Early Prelims), Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.02 higher
SportsBetExpert (Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs Sangal (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B, Fri, Oct 2, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Natus Vincere (Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage, Sat, Oct 3, 12:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Ravens (Titans vs. Ravens, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.86, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Seahawks (Chargers vs. Seahawks, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.76 vs Polymarket $0.75, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Chicago White Sox (Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, Sat, Oct 3, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.43, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Liberty (Liberty vs. Delaware, Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.70 vs Polymarket $0.71, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Florida (Florida vs. Missouri, Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher

Cross-venue net edges after fees

Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO1) - ROG Journey Group D: +0.14% after fees. Buy BASEMENT BOYS @ Kalshi $0.19, BC.Game Esports @ Polymarket $0.78. Fees 2.86%.

Futures, tournaments and nominations

J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.05 higher
Rocco Becht for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Reach $4,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Drew Mestemaker for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.02 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.03 higher

Which venue was closer to the result

On 2816 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 954 times (34%) and on Polymarket 835 times (30%), 1027 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1913, Polymarket 0.1914 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.

CFB: 475 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
MLB: 326 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
CS2: 973 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
LOL: 289 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 40%
EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
ATP: 150 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 24%
WTA: 240 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
UFC: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
NFL: 49 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 14%
MLS: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
WNBA: 39 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 13%
NHL: 59 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 20%

Fed meetings

Meeting	Bucket	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Fed Decision in January?	50+ bps decrease	$0.01	$0.01	−$0.01
Fed Decision in January?	25 bps decrease	$0.03	$0.03	$0.00
Fed Decision in January?	No change	$0.61	$0.64	−$0.04
Fed Decision in January?	25 bps increase	$0.35	$0.33	+$0.02
Fed Decision in January?	50+ bps increase	$0.02	$0.01	$0.00
Fed Decision in December?	50+ bps decrease	$0.01	$0.00	$0.00
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps decrease	$0.02	$0.02	$0.00
Fed Decision in December?	No change	$0.34	$0.32	+$0.02
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps increase	$0.66	$0.66	$0.00
Fed Decision in December?	50+ bps increase	$0.03	$0.01	+$0.01
Fed Decision in October?	50+ bps decrease	$0.01	$0.00	$0.00
Fed Decision in October?	25 bps decrease	$0.01	$0.01	$0.00
Fed Decision in October?	No change	$0.83	$0.82	+$0.01
Fed Decision in October?	25 bps increase	$0.17	$0.18	−$0.01
Fed Decision in October?	50+ bps increase	$0.01	$0.00	$0.00

Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket