Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-01
Matched 530 events (CS2 76, BTC high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, ETH low 2026 1, WTA 28, NBA title 1, CFB 218, Dem 2028 1, NHL 37, NFL MVP 1, Israel PM 1, ATP 13, UFC 12, WNBA title 1, LoL 18, Fed 3, Ballon d'Or 1, Premier League 10, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, UCL games 10, NFL 31, MLS 16, NFL futures 1, NBA 13, World Series 1, MLB 1, WNBA 2), $23.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-01T13:02:32.574Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Team Nemesis (Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs, Thu, Oct 1, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.52, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Noir Verse (Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Noir Verse (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #10 Group Stage, Thu, Oct 1, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Bruce Whitehead (UFC 332: Jacobe Smith vs. Bruce Whitehead (Welterweight, Early Prelims), Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Marvin Vettori (UFC 332: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev (Middleweight, Early Prelims), Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Payton Talbott (UFC 332: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.84 vs Polymarket $0.86, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Nuclear TigeRES (Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs, Thu, Oct 1, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.48, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- The Otter Side (LoL: MAGAZA vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage, Thu, Oct 1, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.65, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Giants (Cardinals vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Rams vs. Eagles, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.40, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bills (Patriots vs. Bills, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.74 vs Polymarket $0.73, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.36, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Will Hammond for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2718 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 919 times (34%) and on Polymarket 802 times (30%), 997 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1904, Polymarket 0.1906 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 473 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 325 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 930 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 277 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 138 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 25%
- WTA: 222 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 48 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 15%
- MLS: 58 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 11%
- NHL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 21%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.25 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.73 | $0.75 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.04 | $0.01 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.50 | $0.52 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.43 | $0.42 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.65 | $0.64 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.35 | $0.36 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-30)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket