Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-30
Matched 492 events (GOP 2028 1, CS2 53, Heisman 1, Dem 2028 1, La Liga 9, NBA title 1, MLS 16, Ballon d'Or 1, BTC high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, France 2027 1, NFL MVP 1, Fed 3, Stanley Cup 1, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, CFB 218, WTA 16, WNBA title 1, UCL games 1, LoL 23, NFL 31, NHL 36, Bundesliga 9, UFC 13, UCL 1, WNBA 2, Israel PM 1, Premier League 10, Ligue 1 7, ATP 24, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, MLB 4), $44.1M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-30T13:00:39.962Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- eternal premium (Counter-Strike: megoshort vs eternal premium (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs, Wed, Sep 30, 9:45 AM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Seahawks (49ers vs. Seahawks, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.61, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Lodis (LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Lodis (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage, Wed, Sep 30, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.50, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Washington Mystics (Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics, Wed, Sep 30, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.42, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Learner Tien (China Open: Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz, Thu, Oct 1, 7:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.63, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Texans (Cowboys vs. Texans, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Jaguars vs. Bengals, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Rams vs. Eagles, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.40, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bills (Patriots vs. Bills, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.74 vs Polymarket $0.73, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Boston Red Sox (Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, Wed, Sep 30, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Harry Kane for the Ballon d'Or: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.43, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Keelon Russell for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $130,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2644 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 890 times (34%) and on Polymarket 780 times (30%), 974 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1916, Polymarket 0.1917 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 473 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 321 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 909 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 261 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 122 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- WTA: 209 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- NFL: 48 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 15%
- MLS: 58 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 36 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 11%
- NHL: 50 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.25 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.75 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.45 | $0.48 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.49 | $0.47 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.66 | $0.66 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.33 | $0.34 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-29)
Views 5 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket