Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-29
Matched 495 events (CS2 39, GOP 2028 1, ETH high 2026 1, ATP 33, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, NBA title 1, Fed 3, France 2027 1, NHL 31, NFL MVP 1, BTC high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, Bundesliga 9, NFL 31, Israel PM 1, MLB 8, CFB 218, MLS 16, UFC 17, LoL 25, UCL 1, WNBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, Ligue 1 7, La Liga 9, Premier League 10, Ballon d'Or 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA 4, WTA 18, World Series 1), $20.4M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-29T13:02:27.057Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Ohio State (Ohio State vs. Iowa, Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.83, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Alexander Zverev (China Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie, Wed, Sep 30, 11:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.92 vs Polymarket $0.90, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Luminosity (Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs, Thu, Oct 1, 6:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Commanders (Colts vs. Commanders, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Cardinals vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.52, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cowboys (Cowboys vs. Texans, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Buccaneers (Packers vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Jaguars vs. Bengals, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bills (Patriots vs. Bills, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.74 vs Polymarket $0.73, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Titans vs. Ravens, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.86 vs Polymarket $0.85, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.37, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Bo Jackson for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.28, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $4,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2555 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 859 times (34%) and on Polymarket 747 times (29%), 949 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1903, Polymarket 0.1905 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 473 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 317 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 877 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 238 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 113 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 26%
- WTA: 197 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 47 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NFL: 48 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 15%
- MLS: 58 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 34 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 12%
- NHL: 47 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.05 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.43 | $0.47 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.48 | $0.47 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.20 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.75 | $0.77 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.30 | $0.31 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.70 | $0.69 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket