Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-28
Matched 388 events (CS2 53, NFL MVP 1, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, MLB 4, Heisman 1, LoL 24, UFC 17, ATP 33, NBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, Fed 3, Dem 2028 1, CFB 114, WTA 27, ETH high 2026 1, Israel PM 1, Ballon d'Or 1, NHL 27, La Liga 8, MLS 15, BTC high 2026 1, WNBA 4, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, WNBA title 1, France 2027 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL 17, Premier League 9, NFL futures 1, UCL 1, World Series 1), $27.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-28T13:01:31.375Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- megoshort (Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs, Mon, Sep 28, 9:45 AM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.11 higher
- Raiders (Chiefs vs. Raiders, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.34, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- DN SOOPers Challengers (LoL: Solary vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs, Wed, Sep 30, 2:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.34, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Leo Team (Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Noir Verse (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #10 Group Stage, Mon, Sep 28, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.41, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Getafe CF (FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF, Sat, Oct 10, 12:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.04 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Bears (Eagles vs. Bears, Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.36, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Browns (Steelers vs. Browns, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Cardinals vs. Giants, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.52, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Vikings (Dolphins vs. Vikings, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.84 vs Polymarket $0.85, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- 49ers (Broncos vs. 49ers, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs: +6.75% after fees. Buy megoshort @ Kalshi $0.40, FORZE Reload @ Polymarket $0.50. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.07 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Rocco Becht for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.13, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2473 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 827 times (33%) and on Polymarket 722 times (29%), 924 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1912, Polymarket 0.1914 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 473 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 317 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 849 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 215 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 98 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 27%
- WTA: 182 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 47 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NFL: 47 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 15%
- MLS: 58 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 12%
- WNBA: 34 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 12%
- NHL: 47 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.05 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.39 | $0.40 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.50 | $0.46 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.21 | $0.19 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.75 | $0.76 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.33 | $0.34 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.66 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket