Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-27
Matched 327 events (CS2 47, GOP 2028 1, NHL 24, BTC high 2026 1, WNBA 8, Heisman 1, ETH high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, France 2027 1, UFC 17, Fed 3, NFL MVP 1, Dem 2028 1, LoL 22, Stanley Cup 1, CFB 114, Premier League 6, Bundesliga 7, NBA title 1, ETH low 2026 1, La Liga 5, Ligue 1 5, WNBA title 1, Ballon d'Or 1, ATP 4, Israel PM 1, NFL futures 1, NFL 31, MLB 15, MLS 2, UCL 1, World Series 1), $22.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-27T13:02:36.175Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- paiN (Counter-Strike: Imperial vs paiN (BO5) - FERJEE In House Playoffs, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.37, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Browns (Panthers vs. Browns, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Bengals vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.40, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chiefs (Chiefs vs. Dolphins, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.86 vs Polymarket $0.85, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Jaguars (Patriots vs. Jaguars, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Seahawks (Seahawks vs. Commanders, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.78, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- 49ers (Cardinals vs. 49ers, Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.77, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Buccaneers (Vikings vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Saints (Raiders vs. Saints, Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bears (Eagles vs. Bears, Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs overTIME (BO3) - Hotspawn Showdown Closed Qualifier Group B: +0.09% after fees. Buy overTIME @ Kalshi $0.21, BASEMENT BOYS @ Polymarket $0.76. Fees 2.91%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.35, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $4,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $6,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2348 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 792 times (34%) and on Polymarket 678 times (29%), 878 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1913, Polymarket 0.1915 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 473 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 302 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 812 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 196 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 35%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 83 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 24%
- WTA: 162 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 47 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 21%
- NFL: 33 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 9%
- MLS: 57 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 11%
- WNBA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- NHL: 47 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.05 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.52 | $0.56 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.38 | $0.35 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.36 | $0.34 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.64 | $0.65 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.28 | $0.28 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.70 | $0.69 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.02 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-26)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket