Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-26

Matched 480 events (CS2 63, LoL 25, GOP 2028 1, WNBA 8, Heisman 1, Fed 3, WNBA title 1, Dem 2028 1, NHL 23, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, CFB 227, BTC high 2026 1, UFC 29, NBA title 1, France 2027 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Stanley Cup 1, ATP 8, Bundesliga 1, UCL 1, MLB 28, NFL futures 1, NFL 31, World Series 1, Israel PM 1, MLS 16, La Liga 1), $23.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-26T13:02:43.373Z.

Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)

Sacred Heart (New Hampshire vs. Sacred Heart, Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Coleman Wong (Hangzhou Open: Coleman Wong vs Adolfo Vallejo, Sat, Sep 26, 9:15 AM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Sedriques Dumas (UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Cloud9 (LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs, Sun, Sep 27, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Shopify Rebellion (LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs, Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Athletics (Houston Astros vs. Athletics, Sat, Sep 26, 9:40 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.41, Kalshi $0.02 higher
MOUZ NXT (Counter-Strike: SAW vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Leon.bet Masters Playoffs, Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.23, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Texans (Texans vs. Colts, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Chiefs (Chiefs vs. Dolphins, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.86 vs Polymarket $0.85, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Commanders (Seahawks vs. Commanders, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.01 higher

Cross-venue net edges after fees

Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Detonate (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs: +4.76% after fees. Buy Detonate @ Kalshi $0.37, Marsborne @ Polymarket $0.55. Fees 3.24%.
LoL: T1 Academy vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: +0.51% after fees. Buy Cupid Esports @ Polymarket $0.11, T1 Academy @ Kalshi $0.87. Fees 1.49%.

Futures, tournaments and nominations

J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
Brendan Sorsby for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Minnesota Lynx for the WNBA title: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Andy Beshear for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Reach $4,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.36, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.04 higher

Which venue was closer to the result

On 2112 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 716 times (34%) and on Polymarket 606 times (29%), 790 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1922, Polymarket 0.1924 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.

CFB: 360 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 29%
MLB: 289 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
CS2: 764 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
LOL: 178 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 36%
EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
ATP: 75 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 24%
WTA: 160 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 21%
UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
UFC: 35 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
NFL: 33 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 9%
MLS: 44 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
WNBA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
NHL: 38 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 16%

Fed meetings

Meeting	Bucket	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Fed Decision in January?	50+ bps decrease	$0.01	$0.03	−$0.02
Fed Decision in January?	25 bps decrease	$0.03	$0.05	−$0.01
Fed Decision in January?	No change	$0.55	$0.56	−$0.01
Fed Decision in January?	25 bps increase	$0.36	$0.32	+$0.04
Fed Decision in January?	50+ bps increase	$0.02	$0.03	−$0.01
Fed Decision in December?	50+ bps decrease	$0.01	$0.00	$0.00
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps decrease	$0.02	$0.02	$0.00
Fed Decision in December?	No change	$0.24	$0.28	−$0.04
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps increase	$0.70	$0.69	+$0.01
Fed Decision in December?	50+ bps increase	$0.02	$0.03	−$0.01
Fed Decision in October?	50+ bps decrease	$0.01	$0.00	$0.00
Fed Decision in October?	25 bps decrease	$0.01	$0.00	$0.00
Fed Decision in October?	No change	$0.36	$0.34	+$0.02
Fed Decision in October?	25 bps increase	$0.64	$0.65	−$0.01
Fed Decision in October?	50+ bps increase	$0.02	$0.01	+$0.01

Traffic yesterday (2026-09-25)

Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%

Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket