Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-25
Matched 474 events (CFB 232, CS2 56, GOP 2028 1, BTC high 2026 1, Heisman 1, WNBA title 1, ETH low 2026 1, LoL 21, ETH high 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, NHL 13, Fed 3, NBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, France 2027 1, MLB 43, Dem 2028 1, Israel PM 1, MLS 16, UFC 28, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, NFL 31, Ballon d'Or 1, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, ATP 9, WTA 5), $32.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-25T13:02:28.573Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Indiana State (North Dakota vs. Indiana State, Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.93 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.80 higher
- Florida (Ole Miss vs. Florida, Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- GamerLegion (Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs K27 (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1 Playoffs, Fri, Sep 25, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Payton Talbott (UFC 332: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 3, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.82 vs Polymarket $0.84, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Colts, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Commanders (Seahawks vs. Commanders, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Titans (Titans vs. Giants, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Broncos (Rams vs. Broncos, Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bears (Eagles vs. Bears, Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.33, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texas Rangers (Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins, Fri, Sep 25, 8:10 PM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.51, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- North Dakota vs. Indiana State: +76.40% after fees. Buy Indiana State @ Polymarket $0.14, North Dakota @ Kalshi $0.08. Fees 1.60%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Reach $120,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Brendan Sorsby for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Keelon Russell for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Minnesota Lynx for the WNBA title: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 2011 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 684 times (34%) and on Polymarket 580 times (29%), 747 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.192, Polymarket 0.1921 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 354 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 273 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 707 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 173 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 68 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 25%
- WTA: 154 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 35 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NFL: 33 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 9%
- MLS: 44 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- WNBA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- NHL: 34 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.24 | $0.27 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.71 | $0.71 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.05 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.55 | $0.56 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.34 | $0.32 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.33 | $0.33 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.68 | $0.67 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket