Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-24
Matched 487 events (CFB 233, ATP 14, LoL 29, GOP 2028 1, CS2 75, ETH low 2026 1, NHL 22, Heisman 1, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, MLB 41, Fed 3, NFL MVP 1, UFC 24, NBA title 1, Israel PM 1, Dem 2028 1, Ballon d'Or 1, France 2027 1, Stanley Cup 1, BTC high 2026 1, UCL 1, WNBA title 1, WTA 8, World Series 1, WNBA 5, MLS 16, NFL futures 1), $19.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-24T12:59:57.722Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Indiana State (North Dakota vs. Indiana State, Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.93 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.80 higher
- Raul Rosas Jr. (UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Chicago White Sox (Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals, Thu, Sep 24, 2:10 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Thu, Sep 24, 6:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.47, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- San Diego Padres (San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Thu, Sep 24, 10:10 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.39, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Florida (Ole Miss vs. Florida, Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Georgia (Oklahoma vs. Georgia, Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.84, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- USC (Oregon vs. USC, Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Iberian Soul (Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Thu, Sep 24, 1:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Iowa State (Utah vs. Iowa State, Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.00 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- North Dakota vs. Indiana State: +76.40% after fees. Buy Indiana State @ Polymarket $0.14, North Dakota @ Kalshi $0.08. Fees 1.60%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $40,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $4,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,000 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Caleb Williams for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.04 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1905 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 639 times (34%) and on Polymarket 551 times (29%), 715 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1917, Polymarket 0.1917 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 353 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 261 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 656 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 163 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 55 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- WTA: 150 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 35 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NFL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 9%
- MLS: 44 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- WNBA: 25 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 4%
- NHL: 25 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 20%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.05 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.55 | $0.56 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.35 | $0.32 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.24 | $0.27 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.71 | $0.72 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.36 | $0.36 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.65 | $0.64 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket