Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-23
Matched 509 events (CFB 233, CS2 89, NHL 23, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, BTC high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, LoL 25, Fed 3, NBA title 1, Israel PM 1, Dem 2028 1, Ballon d'Or 1, France 2027 1, Stanley Cup 1, MLB 43, ATP 20, WTA 9, UFC 24, UCL 1, WNBA title 1, WNBA 7, MLS 16, World Series 1, NFL futures 1), $17.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-23T12:59:38.976Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- North Dakota (North Dakota vs. Indiana State, Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.88, Polymarket $0.81 higher
- SU Esports (LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C, Wed, Sep 23, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- East Texas A&M (East Texas A&M vs. McNeese, Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Alexandra Eala (Singapore Open: Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala, Thu, Sep 24, 6:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.81 vs Polymarket $0.79, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Raoni Barcelos (UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- St. Louis Cardinals (St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, Wed, Sep 23, 6:40 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Cincinnati Reds (Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves, Wed, Sep 23, 7:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Coastal Carolina (Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina, Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Baylor (Colorado vs. Baylor, Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.78, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Florida (Ole Miss vs. Florida, Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- North Dakota vs. Indiana State: +77.40% after fees. Buy Indiana State @ Polymarket $0.14, North Dakota @ Kalshi $0.07. Fees 1.60%.
- Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Semente do Mal (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage: +20.80% after fees. Buy Semente do Mal @ Kalshi $0.17, paiN Academy @ Polymarket $0.60. Fees 2.20%.
- Counter-Strike: Peladona vs your end (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage: +4.82% after fees. Buy your end @ Kalshi $0.30, Peladona @ Polymarket $0.62. Fees 3.18%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.08 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Sam Leavitt for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.22, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Josh Hoover for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.04 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1791 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 598 times (33%) and on Polymarket 515 times (29%), 678 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1921, Polymarket 0.1922 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 353 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 245 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 13%
- CS2: 595 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 150 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 42 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 29%
- WTA: 142 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 35 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NFL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 9%
- MLS: 44 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- WNBA: 23 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 4%
- NHL: 24 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.48 | $0.46 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.51 | $0.54 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.56 | $0.56 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.33 | $0.32 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.28 | $0.28 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.68 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-22)
Views 4 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket