Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-22
Matched 526 events (CFB 233, CS2 73, GOP 2028 1, ETH low 2026 1, LoL 19, NFL MVP 1, NHL 21, BTC low 2026 1, ATP 21, Heisman 1, ETH high 2026 1, Fed 3, WNBA title 1, NBA title 1, WNBA 12, Dem 2028 1, UFC 28, France 2027 1, BTC high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL 32, MLB 42, Israel PM 1, UCL 1, WTA 9, Ballon d'Or 1, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, MLS 16), $21.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-22T13:00:36.181Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Indiana State (North Dakota vs. Indiana State, Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.94 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.77 higher
- Jaguars (Patriots vs. Jaguars, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Inner Circle Esports (Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs, Tue, Sep 22, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Adolfo Vallejo (Hangzhou Open: Jie Cui vs Adolfo Vallejo, Wed, Sep 23, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.74, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Packers (Falcons vs. Packers, Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.72 vs Polymarket $0.73, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Bengals vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bills (Chargers vs. Bills, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.76, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Commanders (Seahawks vs. Commanders, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.27, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Giants (Titans vs. Giants, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Saints (Raiders vs. Saints, Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.62, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- North Dakota vs. Indiana State: +72.23% after fees. Buy Indiana State @ Polymarket $0.19, North Dakota @ Kalshi $0.07. Fees 1.77%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Josh Allen for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.32, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $4,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Darian Mensah for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Minnesota Lynx for the WNBA title: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1676 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 561 times (33%) and on Polymarket 478 times (29%), 637 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1928, Polymarket 0.1928 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 353 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 230 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 545 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 135 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 30 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 136 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 30 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NFL: 32 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 9%
- MLS: 44 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- WNBA: 18 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 6%
- NHL: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 29%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.47 | $0.50 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.52 | $0.50 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.55 | $0.56 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.34 | $0.32 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.29 | $0.28 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.68 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-21)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket