Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-21
Matched 258 events (ETH high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Fed 3, ETH low 2026 1, ATP 23, CS2 52, Heisman 1, BTC low 2026 1, NHL 24, MLB 34, UCL 1, NBA title 1, Israel PM 1, NFL MVP 1, Dem 2028 1, France 2027 1, WNBA 9, WTA 17, LoL 17, MLS 16, Stanley Cup 1, UFC 28, Ballon d'Or 1, NFL 17, WNBA title 1, BTC high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, CFB 1), $25.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-21T13:01:02.494Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Texans (Texans vs. Colts, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.55, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Giants (Giants vs. Rams, Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.27, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Bengals vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bills (Chargers vs. Bills, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.76, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Jaguars (Patriots vs. Jaguars, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Commanders (Seahawks vs. Commanders, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.27, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Ravens vs. Cowboys, Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Eagles vs. Bears, Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Toronto Blue Jays (Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles, Mon, Sep 21, 6:35 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Washington Nationals (Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers, Mon, Sep 21, 6:40 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.42, Polymarket $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Josh Hoover for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.02 vs Polymarket $0.06, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Darian Mensah for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1589 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 543 times (34%) and on Polymarket 447 times (28%), 599 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1939, Polymarket 0.1941 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 353 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 227 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 516 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 119 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 35%
- EPL: 22 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 27%
- LALIGA: 30 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 20 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 122 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 30 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NFL: 31 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 44 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 5%
- WNBA: 16 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 6%
- NHL: 10 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 30%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.06 | $0.05 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.61 | $0.57 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.27 | $0.34 | −$0.06 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.50 | $0.49 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.49 | $0.50 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.31 | $0.30 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.68 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-20)
Views 0 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket