Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-20
Matched 229 events (NHL 21, LoL 13, GOP 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, Fed 3, France 2027 1, Heisman 1, ETH high 2026 1, UFC 22, CS2 21, ETH low 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, MLB 34, UCL 1, NFL 31, WTA 23, NBA title 1, MLS 17, Dem 2028 1, Israel PM 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Stanley Cup 1, CFB 1, WNBA title 1, BTC high 2026 1, WNBA 12, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, Premier League 4, La Liga 5, Bundesliga 3, Ligue 1 2), $31.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-20T13:00:50.898Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Buccaneers (Browns vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Titans (Eagles vs. Titans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.26, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Steelers vs. Patriots, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.68, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Broncos (Jaguars vs. Broncos, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Chargers (Raiders vs. Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.74, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chiefs (Colts vs. Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.72 vs Polymarket $0.71, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Boston Red Sox (Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Sun, Sep 20, 1:40 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Houston Astros (Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros, Sun, Sep 20, 2:10 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- New York Yankees (New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, Sun, Sep 20, 4:10 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Minnesota Lynx (Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.94 vs Polymarket $0.93, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.30 vs Polymarket $0.25, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Trinidad Chambliss for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $5,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1495 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 509 times (34%) and on Polymarket 428 times (29%), 558 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1924, Polymarket 0.1925 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 353 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 212 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- CS2: 501 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 105 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 18 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 25 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 4%
- BUNDESLIGA: 17 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 15 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 20%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 112 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 30 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
- NFL: 17 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 43 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 5%
- WNBA: 11 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 9%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.61 | $0.57 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.29 | $0.34 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.45 | $0.44 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.55 | $0.56 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.31 | $0.31 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.68 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-19)
Views 4 · expands 2 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket