Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-19
Matched 367 events (ETH low 2026 1, LoL 26, CS2 28, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, BTC low 2026 1, NHL 24, Fed 3, UCL 1, NBA title 1, MLB 33, Dem 2028 1, ETH high 2026 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 31, WNBA 10, NFL MVP 1, CFB 116, WTA 9, Ballon d'Or 1, MLS 30, Stanley Cup 1, BTC high 2026 1, Israel PM 1, World Series 1, NFL futures 1, Premier League 9, La Liga 8, Bundesliga 8, Ligue 1 6, UFC 9), $36.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-19T13:00:38.575Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Vitality (Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.77, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Texans (Bengals vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Toronto Blue Jays (Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers, Sat, Sep 19, 7:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.54 vs Polymarket $0.53, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Dartmouth (Dartmouth vs. Lehigh, Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Kansas State (Tulane vs. Kansas State, Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.93 vs Polymarket $0.92, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- North Carolina (North Carolina vs. Clemson, Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Louisville (SMU vs. Louisville, Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.54, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texas A&M (Kentucky vs. Texas A&M, Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.89 vs Polymarket $0.88, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Auburn (Florida vs. Auburn, Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Colorado (Colorado vs. Northwestern, Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.09 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Sam Leavitt for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.02 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.30 vs Polymarket $0.25, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1273 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 448 times (35%) and on Polymarket 363 times (29%), 462 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1911, Polymarket 0.1913 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 238 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 30%
- MLB: 197 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 13%
- CS2: 478 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 93 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 13 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 15%
- LALIGA: 22 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 5%
- BUNDESLIGA: 12 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 11 games, Kalshi closer 45%, Polymarket closer 9%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 101 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 21 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 17 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 30 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 3%
- WNBA: 8 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 13%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.61 | $0.57 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.29 | $0.34 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.45 | $0.44 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.54 | $0.56 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.31 | $0.31 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.68 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-18)
Views 18 · expands 2 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket