Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-18
Matched 392 events (ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, UCL 1, Heisman 1, CS2 41, Israel PM 1, BTC low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, NBA title 1, MLB 45, WNBA 11, Fed 3, Dem 2028 1, NFL MVP 1, BTC high 2026 1, NFL 31, CFB 119, NHL 17, Stanley Cup 1, WTA 6, France 2027 1, WNBA title 1, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1, MLS 30, NFL futures 1, Premier League 10, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, UFC 9, LoL 28), $27.9M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-18T13:00:27.775Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Central Michigan (Wyoming vs. Central Michigan, Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- EYEBALLERS (Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs BBL (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group B, Fri, Sep 18, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.53, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- NRG (Counter-Strike: NRG vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, Fri, Sep 18, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.26, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Inner Circle Esports (Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group B, Fri, Sep 18, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.58 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Falcons (Panthers vs. Falcons, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.43, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Texans (Bengals vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Packers (Packers vs. Jets, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.62, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Chiefs (Colts vs. Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.74, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles, Fri, Sep 18, 7:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- St. Louis Cardinals (Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals, Fri, Sep 18, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $50,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.26, Polymarket $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1181 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 412 times (35%) and on Polymarket 338 times (29%), 431 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1926, Polymarket 0.1929 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 235 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 182 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 13%
- CS2: 434 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 89 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 12 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 21 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 5%
- BUNDESLIGA: 11 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 10 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 10%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 83 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 21 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 17 games, Kalshi closer 12%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 29 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 3%
- WNBA: 5 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 0%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.61 | $0.57 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.30 | $0.33 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.49 | $0.46 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.51 | $0.53 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.31 | $0.32 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.67 | $0.66 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-17)
Views 24 · expands 5 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket