Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-17
Matched 390 events (BTC low 2026 1, MLS 30, GOP 2028 1, CS2 58, ETH low 2026 1, Heisman 1, Fed 3, NBA title 1, CFB 120, Israel PM 1, UCL 1, La Liga 12, France 2027 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Stanley Cup 1, LoL 16, ETH high 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, NFL 32, MLB 39, Dem 2028 1, WNBA 11, WNBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, UFC 9, World Series 1, Premier League 10, NFL futures 1, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, WTA 11, NHL 6), $26.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-17T13:00:30.735Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Phoenix Mercury (Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire, Thu, Sep 17, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Alexandre Pantoja (UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bills (Lions vs. Bills, Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.68, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Panthers vs. Falcons, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Bengals vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Packers (Packers vs. Jets, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.62, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Eagles vs. Titans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.77 vs Polymarket $0.76, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Steelers vs. Patriots, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.32, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Seahawks vs. Cardinals, Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.35, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Rams (Giants vs. Rams, Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.75 vs Polymarket $0.74, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Dip to $50,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $40,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1107 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 383 times (35%) and on Polymarket 315 times (28%), 409 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1935, Polymarket 0.1939 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 234 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 173 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- CS2: 393 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 85 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 12 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 19 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 5%
- BUNDESLIGA: 11 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 10 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 10%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 72 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 21 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 16 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 29 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 3%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.10 | $0.11 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.61 | $0.57 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.27 | $0.31 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.28 | $0.31 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.69 | $0.69 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.55 | $0.54 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.46 | $0.47 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-16)
Views 4 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket