Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-16
Matched 390 events (Fed 3, GOP 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, CS2 63, MLB 39, NBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL 32, LoL 12, Israel PM 1, CFB 120, France 2027 1, Dem 2028 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA title 1, WNBA 8, Premier League 10, UFC 9, UCL 1, BTC high 2026 1, World Series 1, Ballon d'Or 1, La Liga 14, WTA 17, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, MLS 30), $25.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-16T13:01:12.260Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Arsenal FC (Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC, Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 59¢ vs Polymarket 56¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Mauricio Ruffy (UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi 28¢ vs Polymarket 26¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Alexandre Pantoja (UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi 44¢ vs Polymarket 46¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- magic (Counter-Strike: Vitality vs magic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, Thu, Sep 17, 8:30 AM ET): Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Detroit Tigers (Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays, Wed, Sep 16, 3:07 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 46¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Alina Charaeva (Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva, Wed, Sep 16, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 62¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
- Eva Lys (Sao Paulo Open: Eva Lys vs Gabriela Ce, Wed, Sep 16, 1:30 PM ET): Kalshi 75¢ vs Polymarket 76¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
- Falcons (Panthers vs. Falcons, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 44¢ vs Polymarket 43¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Jets (Packers vs. Jets, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 37¢ vs Polymarket 38¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Ravens (Saints vs. Ravens, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 79¢ vs Polymarket 80¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 5.7 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 13¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 13¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 21¢ vs Polymarket 16¢, Kalshi 4.2 pts higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 20¢ vs Polymarket 16¢, Kalshi 4.2 pts higher
- Dip to $50,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 19¢ vs Polymarket 15¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 8¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 1044 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 366 times (35%) and on Polymarket 295 times (28%), 383 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1931, Polymarket 0.1934 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 234 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 158 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 11%
- CS2: 367 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 80 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 12 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 17 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 11 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 10 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 10%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 57 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 21%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 21 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 16 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 29 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 3%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 3¢ | 5¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 13¢ | 9¢ | +3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 51¢ | 57¢ | -7.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 19¢ | 24¢ | -4.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +3.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | -0.4 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 2¢ | 4¢ | -2.4 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 35¢ | 33¢ | +1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 61¢ | 62¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | -0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 63¢ | 64¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 38¢ | 36¢ | +2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.5 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-15)
Views 6 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket