Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-15
Matched 373 events (ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, CS2 53, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, UCL 1, NBA title 1, France 2027 1, Dem 2028 1, NFL MVP 1, CFB 120, WTA 20, UFC 14, LoL 13, Fed 3, Ballon d'Or 1, Stanley Cup 1, MLB 39, WNBA 5, WNBA title 1, NFL futures 1, BTC high 2026 1, Israel PM 1, World Series 1, ETH high 2026 1, La Liga 17, NFL 16, Premier League 10, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, MLS 30), $19.1M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-15T13:01:30.504Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Gable Steveson (UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims), Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi 94¢ vs Polymarket 91¢, Kalshi 3.0 pts higher
- Alexandre Pantoja (UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi 44¢ vs Polymarket 46¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- BakS eSports (Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #9 Group Stage, Tue, Sep 15, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 59¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Mississippi State (Mississippi State vs. South Carolina, Sat, Sep 19, 4:15 PM ET): Kalshi 40¢ vs Polymarket 38¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Panthers (Panthers vs. Falcons, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 53¢ vs Polymarket 54¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Texans (Bengals vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 60¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Packers (Packers vs. Jets, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Titans (Eagles vs. Titans, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 24¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Steelers (Steelers vs. Patriots, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 33¢ vs Polymarket 32¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Broncos (Jaguars vs. Broncos, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 54¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 21¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Kalshi 8.1 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 5.7 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- Byrum Brown for the Heisman: Kalshi 1¢ vs Polymarket 5¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 23¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 12¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 8¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 21¢ vs Polymarket 17¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 985 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 346 times (35%) and on Polymarket 279 times (28%), 360 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1916, Polymarket 0.1921 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 234 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 143 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 12%
- CS2: 344 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 75 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 12 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 14 games, Kalshi closer 50%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 11 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 10 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 10%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 49 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 22%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 16 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NFL: 16 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 6%
- MLS: 29 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 3%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 3¢ | -0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 41¢ | 38¢ | +3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 57¢ | 60¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 5¢ | -1.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 13¢ | 14¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 57¢ | 58¢ | -0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 21¢ | 24¢ | -2.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 5¢ | 2¢ | +2.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.7 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 61¢ | 63¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 36¢ | 37¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.8 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-14)
Views 5 · expands 4 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 3 · outbound Polymarket 3 · click-through 120%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket